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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (666)	6/25/2002 10:40:57 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

Marsico has incorrect view of US growth and productivity the 1990 growth was largely from gold subsidizing treasurys so we mortgaged the 2000-2010 decade to get lower interest rates productivity is grossly overstated, as Gross and Roache and Jim Grant have noted hedonic stat conventions dont wash thru scrutiny either in productivity or inflation calculations the virtuous cycle of subsidizing treasurys now YIELDS to a vicious cycle of margin calls on gold which ushers in the next era of declining dollar, higher inflation, higher rates, more recession, more layoffs expect discontinuity to arrive before end of year / jim

To: stockman_scott who wrote (666)	6/25/2002 11:18:15 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

article: FOMC, rate decisions, assess weakness, mild debate money.cnn.com as time passes, reality overwhelms politicized economic data and policy making heresy is heresy, and is dealt with by equilibrium seeking markets I believe Q1 was a grossly overstated quarter for growth, for productivity layoffs and bankruptcies are getting little attention the Fed will hold pat not because they see improvement and want more strength but because they are locked strangled caught in a box to raise rates hurt corp profits and stock market to lower rates hurts the already declining dollar to stand pat continues to encourage bondholders to find gold they stand pat, because they are powerless and slowly are realizing it they read the gold signal better than the investment world it is signaling bigtime trouble over the horizon THE REVENGE OF GOLD as punishment for 30 years of irresponsible money printing / jim