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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sylvester80 who wrote (85632)	6/25/2002 8:48:33 PM
From: Softechie	Respond to of 99280

Read this! TC2000 Don Worden is getting pissed! The Worden Report (Tuesday, June 25, 2002) Oversold! “The bottom line is that we're in a bear market and rallies are sold into.” It isn't widely appreciated that the contrary errors that really tell the tale are those made by pros. Nobody is immune to the paralysis of the nervous system that plunging markets invoke. The above is a quote from a pro in a publication I sometimes read. He's no doubt an intelligent and experienced analyst, but it is an illogical statement made under duress. Which comes first? The chicken or the egg? The bottom line or the bear market? Does the bear market cause the bottom line? Or does the bottom line cause the bear market. The bottom line is that all bear markets end, and this one is no exception. The bottom line is that stocks in general are far less risky now than they were two years ago. The bottom line is that all great bottoms have been born in periods of great stress – comparable to what we are feeling now. What we need are methods of desensitizing ourselves to carnage. One way is to tell yourself that in 100 years it won't matter. ROFLMAO!!! WTF is this analogy!!! LOL!!! Another is to live long enough to experience several of these. This helps, but to a limited degree. On Thursday, June 13, I ended the Worden Report as follows: Now, what if we don't have that terrible capitulation? That would probably mean we'll still have a bottom and a rally. But maybe not the final bottom. I personally would prefer to see it happen - and get it over with. But it'll scare me too. -DW Disappointment and surprise are always psychologically destructive in a market environment. But during highly intense periods like this, they become greatly exaggerated. Every event and time itself are magnified. Thus it seems like a catastrophe when the capitulation you were hoping for tomorrow doesn't materialize on schedule. But that doesn't mean it's going to take a year longer than you hoped for. Still, you are disappointed once, then twice, then thrice, then…when it happens you'll no longer believe in it. That's the market's final sadistic jab. It saps you of hope, belief, optimism. Don't let it happen to you. Remember, the bottom line isn't that we're in a bear market. That's nothing but a footnote. The bottom line is that this bear market is going to end and that most investors are going to be too exhausted, too disappointed, too disillusioned, too filled with self pity and bitterness to believe it. This doesn't have to be you. The market is now very oversold. This will soon result in a rally of some kind. It may or may not be followed by another failure to follow through. But one of these times it won't fail. In the past five market days, only 28 industry groups have posted an advance, while 211 have posted declines. In the past 30 market days 22 have advanced while 216 have declined. These figures mean the market is oversold to an extreme, which can't go on for long. And for the past six months, 129 have advanced, while 110 have declined. This is a favorable reality to factor that into your bottom line. -DW