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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (85717)	6/25/2002 10:03:21 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

<<If we manage a massive GNT in the -1400 or lower range, we my not need a string of 5, three will suffice and we already had one. I think we will have to watch intently for the white in the MM's eyes, maybe tomorrow? We'll see.>> Out of curiousity. . . if we got a huge negative tick tomorrow and then a massive reversal. . .where would the third huge negative tick come from? A retest on Thursday (that sets a higher low)? (And I should add that I realize the Naz would take a huge hit to get to your 1326 target, so if that and the huge tick come together, that might be a hint that even a perma-bear should heed) Bears are thick here in the turnip patch tonight <g> the freep

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (85717)	6/25/2002 10:20:29 PM
From: profit_guy	Respond to of 99280

ZEEV, how do you "see" the white in mm's eyes?...VIX 36-40, and GNT -1400? (i assume you mean the nasdaq tick?) ...any thoughts if the open will be the low, or will we get margin calls, panic sellers, new shorts etc driving it down til 10:30-11:00? ...and what % cash will you deploy if you see the white in the mm's eyes?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (85717)	6/25/2002 10:29:54 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Respond to of 99280

I think they will lower rates tomorrow and we will get that dampening oscillation effect as we sell off tomorrow afternoon at 2:15 after a really bad morning. Some people will be closing very large short positions as we go down causing a minor bounce upwards that will be sold into strongly. I already had to calculate today that about 1/3 of my existing short calls are worth close to zero now and need to reload short calls at next strike price down tommorrow morning. The only reason I didn't have to write at 2 strike prices down was because I wrote new calls all day long expecting more touble. My broker is on fixed fee for year so he was getting antzy today because the retired people he noramlly deals with must have been whining profusly today while I traded about 50% of my outstanding short calls for new ones as old ones vaporized in price. Soloman fee program is allowing me to trade 3 times my portfolio value for the flat fee and since they are only counting my option premiums to the total, all I have to do is keep 1/3 of all the option premiums received and I will never exceed the trading limits of the fee program. Also, options allow you to trade larger quantities of stock then with straight equities. As long as stock go mostly down, I have mostly calls open with just a very few safe short PUT to take in a extra premium. Just to let you know I am a not a perma bull, I get to about 50% dollar liability long via short PUTs and 50% dollar liability short vua short calls when it looks like bottom has been reached. But those situation only last for less then 6.5 trading hours now a days. When in those instances where I have a lot of short PUTs I am more bullish then about 99% of the bulls on the thread from a potential capital loss situation. It is very hard for me to sell PUTs on junk like TYC QLGC ELX etc. I don't want to find myself on skid row one morning if stocks collaspe. I have to feel that any upwards movement is short lived since mom and pop investors in this country are still pulling out, especially in "safe" stocks like WMT KO PG with high PE's. That were the remaining big money in market is left IMO. Foreigners man they got no allegiances to US market and they will be just about gone as investors in this countries equities until stocks trade close to real cash book values. TYC IMO just hasn't even finished counting the massive "accounting errors" since they went from a company that was primarily a telecom and electronic parts supplier to securtity system and fiananing company in about 9 months.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (85717)	6/25/2002 10:38:51 PM
From: Robin Plunder	Respond to of 99280

Zeev, even if we get a -1400 tick tomorrow, it would seem that the wcom news will be shattering for investor confidence. No one will be able to believe the numbers that are being reported from many companies. PE's will come down as this risk gets priced into the market. At some point we will bottom, but it seems unlikely the market could reflect this change in perception in one day, or even two days. It may be that when the market does bounce, it will be a weak and short-lived rally, relative to the rally that we had after 9/11. Robin