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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SpinCity1 who wrote (58784)	6/26/2002 1:05:47 PM
From: SirRealist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 208838

Behavior Modification of the Impertinent Indexes On the DOW, 7590-7610 and 6970-7015 are the two ranges to keep an eye on over the next few days. Breaking below the first range will inevitably yield to the second. On NASDAQ, 1240-1255 is the first range to look for. I've been unable to ascertain the lower with such accuracy, though believe it to be somewhere in the 975-1060 range with 1035 as the closest midpoint I can define at this time. In both cases, I'd say there's an 85% chance of reaching the first target in both and just a 25% chance of breaking lower to the second. I'm such a revisionist..... I made a weekend call of 6300 in the DOW that was, in part, based on a much more dire projection of another person who had charted a drop to the 5000 region.... and I revised my outlook to a midpoint between my initial outlook and his, using a definable support point. Upon further analysis, (without relying on any outside source), including mathematical calculations, I can describe the targets in this post as much more logical, definable and defensible. In general, I find it unlikely we'll break through the first target range unless some national or international event of enormous gravity precipitates it. (Something in the range of an oil embargo to the use of a WMD). And, depending on the severity of such event, no support point may be safe. As for today, I can't rule out the possibility of a run back to 1475. While some would characterize that as a short squeeze or a program buying spree, I'd simply call it more of the continued manipulation by central banks to lower gold prices a tad more, where the real short squeeze awaits. Remember, a close today at 1475 might lead to a run tomorrow that seeks to close the NASDy gap around 1543. However, staying long at 1475 would be enormously risky because a close at 1475 would represent a 3 days consecutive triple top in that index. 1385-1475 for the rest of today, with the bulk of the remaining rise after Uncle Algae dances, is a distinct possibility, but if it occurs, I reiterate my tiresome stand at the close: buy GG and GFI. By 7/3 to 7/8, the rewards will be clear. We're close enough to my target dates now that I see no need to revise again based on fresh data, scurrilous scuttlebutt, penguinista psychic phenomena, or interplanetary alignments. The targets herein are definable and defensible via TA and mathematic models and only the panic of a larger world event is likely to create a situation where we might break the twin support points of the two indexes, as defined.