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To: AllansAlias who wrote (43317)	6/26/2002 1:13:40 PM
From: jjstingray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Excellent point. I agree that too many of us are looking for capitulation. A rally from here will suck more short in at the top, just like the previous rallies. Short the rally folks. A continuation would get the bulls all frothed up and buying heavy. A dropout from there would benefit nobody because the bears would have covered due to the fear of the market leaving without them.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (43317)	6/26/2002 1:15:02 PM
From: jjstingray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

AA, is there any structure to this selloff in terms of E wave?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (43317)	6/26/2002 1:15:10 PM
From: Doo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

I agree.....but I favor a 90 day rally to set it up. Could be shorter, but I don't think a matter of a couple of weeks. That's my guess.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (43317)	6/26/2002 1:20:41 PM
From: byhiselo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

plausible, for the contra inclined, even Cramer is expecting more down: ----------------------------------------------- Hoping There's Worse Yet to Come By James J. Cramer 06/26/2002 11:46 AM EDT How tempting it is to believe we have seen the worst. But that's the problem, isn't it? This selloff, this little itty-bitty selloff, does nothing. It's as if we were still in that "I don't want it to go down so I will buy it" mode. Let it come in already! I think traders have to be selling this market, selling it hard. Investors, you can lighten up into this one, small, to get ready to buy a bigger decline. Because we have accomplished nothing. Nothing. It is very disappointing. To both the bulls and the bears. Not enough capitulation and not enough decline to change anything. And doesn't that seem to be the story of this market's life?!?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (43317)	6/26/2002 1:26:05 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

well, another dip below this am's lows that was convincing, with lots of short covering and then a crash might work too...

To: AllansAlias who wrote (43317)	6/26/2002 1:31:19 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

#2...it's the LEAST favored by far, and still has cycle work to back it up. rationale... 1)bad news begets bad news. Just don't know what it is yet 2)lots of old heads willing to "stay the course"... so far, still got green from value ltbh 5-10 years ago...concerned, but definitely not scared, these folks will sell at break even or slightly above 3)Forced margin selling on any further decline 4)terrorism factor 5)market still filled with weak bases that no way filled off todays gap down 6)NYSE bullish % level still needs work to confirm broader market 7)Sentiment not showing conditions for durable low 8)Buyers strike...rallies will be short covering, not buying. As a decline takes hold, short sellers see limited potential, fail to participate, provide no support

To: AllansAlias who wrote (43317)	6/26/2002 1:35:26 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

AA, sometimes I think we have to be careful not to overthink things a bit. First the NDX broke the Sept. lows, now the COMP. The SPX was close, but didn't quite make it. That's next on the agenda. After that comes the NYA, then the Dow. I think this all happens in the next few days. The fact that the NYA and SPX couldn't fill their gaps down tells us they are on deck. We do not get macro lows off gaps down. We do sell Fed meetings. Most of the buying has been by shorts covering on technical factors. Right now the technicals say short this market down unmercifully.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (43317)	6/26/2002 1:48:37 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

My only take on "the middle road" is a subjective one, cuz I'm really like Yogi Berra here -- when I get to a fork in the road, I take it. But my subjective opinion is we get more down and get some kind of a bottom here sooner rather than later. Why, I hear you ask? I have two subjective reasons: this is the time of the year for bad news flow impacting psychology (as we saw today with WCOM and last week or so with INTC). Now, the subset of this is that really, the warnings haven't been that thick and fast, and if we get out "unscathed" then earnings season could either help us rock OR we get warnings then with earnings, and that causes your tank. Along the "news flow" line is the G8 meeting, where the dollar could be an issue (and this could in turn cause rally or tank, conveniently). Add to this that it's quarter end and time for rebalancing. And the commercials are covering. To me, all this gives more chance of down now rather than later. . . though no guarantees. And. . . My other subjective reason is that EVERYONE starts talking about a bottom all the time now. That proves it's not THE bottom (when, supposedly, no one even talks stocks, let along calls bottoms). However, let the fever pitch build for a few more days to get late shorts to the party and get longs to capitulate, then reverse back up while they sit by and watch. You place a decent bottom here, and most everyone will think this is THE bottom. Sure, the market might reward a few bears for a few days (if they're lucky enough to get out at the lows) but think of what they'll sucker in if you guys are right and that any rally from here is a "C" or just another bear market rally? THAT is where the max profit will be. Sure, they give some up by being "predicted" here. . . but oh my, the upside. now, watch the Fed do something magical and us go to 1500 Naz before the ink is dry on my post <g> the freep

To: AllansAlias who wrote (43317)	6/26/2002 1:49:34 PM
From: Berk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

On your scenarios: have you or others on the thread seen many published comparison charts of the Naz and the 1929 or Japanese markets? In October of 1987 they were everywhere and much discussed on the Street. It got so bad that one of the best traders stated publically that the '29 scenario is the one thing that wouldn't happen.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (43317)	6/26/2002 1:56:40 PM
From: bcrafty	Respond to of 209892

Allan, I like Jeff's scenario which would also fit in with Tommy Bear's on the monthly charts However, two things that don't fit in with that scenario are (a) warnings/earnings season has just begun, and it looks like we're likely to hear more bad news than good as far as earnings and guidance is concerned, which would mean that we have a lower low coming in the next month, and (b) nobody has advanced a plausible catalyst for a 90 day rally to go forward. But a caveat one must consider is that catalysts often come out of nowhere, and often when they're least expected such as in April '01 when Dell announced it would meet earnings sparking a six week naz rally, or the October '01 "second quarter recovery" theory that led to a 3-4 month rally.