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To: MythMan who wrote (175642)6/26/2002 2:33:33 PM
From: marginmike  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
T will go bankrupt before its all overe, I said it 2 years ago.



To: MythMan who wrote (175642)6/26/2002 2:41:53 PM
From: reaper  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
dood, you don't follow T too close do you? Armstrong already has gotten the boot; he's moving to the cable business. T no longer owns the wireless business; its spun out to shareholders.

long distance ain't worth crap. its a depleting asset that requires continuous capital upgrades. plus, what do you think is going to happen to MCI? are they going to shut it down? no, they are going to re-structure, zero out the equity and trade most of the debt for new equity, giving MCI an inherently lower cost structure than T in a business where prices are falling.

when the cable stuff is sold, you'll be left holding Comcast paper (they ain't selling for cash, 'cause Comcast ain't got any). taken a look at Adelphia, Charter or Cablevision lately? riddle me this -- how many dollars of free cash flow has the entire cable industry generated in its existence??

at least you're left with the pension and deferred tax liability.

Cheers



To: MythMan who wrote (175642)6/26/2002 3:05:24 PM
From: reaper  Respond to of 436258
 
Myth -- I think it was you and Grace tossing around Rite Aid (RAD) yesterday.

Broker finally called me back; 6% senior notes of '05 trading at 65-68 cents; 7 5/8% senior notes of '05 trading at 67-70 cents. That's over a 22% yield-to-maturity for 3-year paper. I would say that there are not a whole lot of solvent companies that have bonds trading under 70 cents on the dollar. Plus RAD has never in recent history generated free cash flow. The equity is likely worthless.

Cheers