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To: Paul Shread who wrote (43461)	6/26/2002 5:55:47 PM
From: UnBelievable	Respond to of 209892

Its Hard To Imagine That we build a new leg up in SPX without testing the WTC low which was only a few points lower than the overnight low, which we did not test either. I think that the stage was set for the capitulation rally that would have launced the summer rally but the early drop in the dollar freaked a lot of people and it was decided that the capitulation rally had to be postponed. But then this market has shown me how limited an imagination I have.

To: Paul Shread who wrote (43461)	6/26/2002 8:25:18 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

July begins the worst 4 months of the year for the Nasdaq since 1971. Omitting Presidential election years... it's July, Aug., Sept then October...in that order. August, September and October each post successively worse negative returns. And while the SnP has managed to post exactly middle of the road performance for July since 1950 ...August and September are the WORST performing months, (realizing the only negative returns) for that index on a monthly basis. "Traders Almanac" pps. 136-137 Odds certainly are in favor of some sort of light rally situation in the month of July, vs a big production rally into Aug./Sept. Seasonality would still favor the Q4 scenario for any appreciable secular bear market, cyclical bull, rally.