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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (86890)	6/26/2002 7:06:22 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev, looking back at the lows in Jan. 2001, April 2001, Sept. 2001, Feb. 2002, and May 2002, there have been a few things in common: A re-test has happened in 3-4 days after the low was set. The re-tests came within an average of 1.5% of the low (with the exception of April 2001, but the SOXX set a new low then). The average rally lasted about 1.5 days. The re-test took over from there. If that is the case, we have probably no more than half a day of gains tomorrow if we've not already had them all now. The question is where this stops before the re-test begins. The high tomorrow could stop at 1445 COMP, 1463, or even 1475 or so. I'm on the side of 1445 if we go higher, and maybe we'll get it in the first hour. If not, we could get a high around 1463 close to noon,IMO. We rose 5.7% out of the Feb. low and then re-tested the lows. We already went up 4.5%. 1463 would be 6.5%, which could be the sweet spot. Either way, you're probably not going to get slaughtered staying overnight in the Q.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (86890)	6/26/2002 7:44:15 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 99280

Zeev: Re: " I am not very comfortable with that, but neither did I see that white on the February low, and I jumped back on almost after a full third of the total rally was already under the belt, I am trying not to repeat the February mistake." February is history and it was a 14-15% rally. As the bear progresses, it makes lower highs as you can see since February as the downtrend line is quite apparent. The rallies have gotten weaker and weaker until they are now just bounces. We are at the bounce stage now and we are at or below the September lows. I can't think of one occassion in this bear market where we have touched the prior lows and launched higher on some magnificent run without breaching them. Why should this time be any different? Re: "Where do you think we go in the next four weeks?" I don't see this as like February. I think we are at the point where the down needs some good resolution before getting a sustainable rally. And that, I am afraid, means lower lows. I don't believe 1375 is it. People are afraid to a certain extent. But the action in the market suggests they are just as afraid if not more afraid of missing any rally. And the bears, it seems, are afraid of being eaten by any rally and thus a quick scan of SI shows most in cash it seems or even long. So maybe this is why we grind lower. And have you noticed the QQQ max pain? Over the past few weeks it has dropped from $31 to $28 and $27 is now making a run. Yes, the September lows are becoming resistance. You need an increase in max pain, it would seem, to get the kind of rally you are looking for and it is not happening. Instead, you got the opposite. You need more disbelievers. And in order to get that you need more fear and lower lows, all consistent with the four year cycle path we have been following since January and the progression of this bear market.