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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: High-Tech East who wrote (50017)	6/26/2002 8:57:20 PM
From: Stormweaver	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

Actually some hope High-Tech, Tobin Smith made a comment that Sun's price is getting in the attractive range at 1.5 sales (at $3, Charles says it's there now).

To: High-Tech East who wrote (50017)	6/26/2002 10:32:06 PM
From: cfimx	Respond to of 64865

...a penny stock ken? that should get your attention. <G>

To: High-Tech East who wrote (50017)	6/27/2002 1:24:15 AM
From: uu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 64865

Ken, Actually SUNW is now where it was back in Oct-Dec of 1997 (pre split the stock at that time was at around $36-$40/shr selling at around 1-1.5 times it sales - before it started to take off due to the Internet computing model. Now lets consider the following: 1997 VS. 2002 1) Sun is a far more established, larger company with double the revenue than it had back in 1997. Of course it also has a lot more overhead costs than it did back in 97 too. 2) In 97 the server centric computing model was the driving force behind Sun's revenue growth. The same applies today also, except now: a) Sun has quite a few competotrs in the server market (IBM, HPQ, DELL, etc.) b) The market is pretty much oversaturated with servers (i.e. the need has been met and the market for having a server centric computing model is more mature). So with above in mind, where is Sun heading? Well... Here are my thoughts... 1) The next wave of technology is on its way to evolve the server centric computing model into a far bigger thing than it is today. This is called "Web Services". IBM, Sun, and Microsoft (via its .NET) are going to take over a huge market -of which the winner of the 3 will assure itself a $5-$6 billion market. Now whether Sun is going to be the winner is yet to be seen, but since Java is the center point of Sun's strategy and the development community is a huge fan of Java, my guess is that Sun and IBM become very close in winning the market with Microsoft in a bit of distance from them. 2) Web Services and all software associated with it are going to increase the demand for servers (where Sun will actually makes its money). The demand will of course not be as great as it was back in 97-2000, but will be close by about 25-30%. So having said that, I believe SUNW in 2002 will at best have a market cap of about $12-$17 billion (or about 1.5-2 times its sales - or $3.5-$5/shr). The revenue increase will come into play hopefully early next year when Web services is expected to take off. In the meantime and regretfully Sun will have to cut its overheads. A lot more good hard working employees (e.g. in particular engineers) will be laid off. I sure hope thaat does not happen for which we are talking about communities and families being hurt. As for the stock, I think it will not go anywhere so there is no need to rush and buy right now. I for sure however will start loading under $4/shr (which we may or may not see by the end of October - but I think we will). If what I think Web Services would do to the server centric computing model in terms of even more productivity and cost savings, Sun will propser in 2003 in a big way. As for how the stock would do by the end of 2003 your crystal ball is as good as mine, but I think doubling from here is logical to "assume" (and I for one - after expericning the pain of being greedy and losing so much because of my own stupidity and stubborn greed - will be very happy with a 100% gain in 12 months or so). These days things look so bad, and feel so bad, no one will listen to the voice of an idealistic optmistic "investor" (with the stress on the term "investor"), but that is OK! It is sort of like when things looked and felt so good that no one was willing to listen to the voice of an idealistic pessimistic "investor"! I go on the record as saying that there comes a day that people would look back and will be kicking themselves for not buying what they could have bought today at these prices. As for when that day would come, I for one sure hope it is during my life time - but for sure it will come! And of course all in my opinion and keep in mind as documented and from a personal first hand experience I have been proven to be wrong many many many many times in the past! :) Regards,