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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (86963)	6/26/2002 10:48:43 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Respond to of 99280

Zeev: Makes sense to me. I too find it hard to envision a strong rally without real capitulation. A decent bounce is as good as it gets at this point IMHO

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (86963)	6/26/2002 10:58:02 PM
From: augieboo	Respond to of 99280

UPDATED UPDATE OF ZEEV'S NASSACRE PROGNOSIS This just in... (as they say on T.V.): To:George S. Cole who wrote (86951) From: Zeev Hed Wednesday, Jun 26, 2002 10:41 PM View Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86969 George, in this chart are two additional parameters pointing to the parallels with the February low: stockcharts.com[h,a]da... The same kissing of the 30 level in the RSI, and the same or even greater excursion of the Wilder's DMI+ and DMI - to levels not seen since September (worst than the February valley and peaks respectively, and much worse then the last run to the May high, from May 7th on, before the nassacre started.). Because we did not get the rest of the indicators lined up, I feel that the rally is going to be a false one, but I think that a stock like QLGC might have a good chance to run past $38 and probably peak again in the $42/$45 area. I am not going to unzip more my bear suit (half unzipped is enough), since I do not have a good handle how far this can get us. My best bet is by the second to the third week in July, this mini summer rally will be over, and right now I am leaning to less than 200 Naz points from the bottom, or about 1526/1555. Only if the volume increases dramatically, and new highs get above 180 within a week, do I see further expansion above 1555, and not by much (just some 40 to 55 naz points higher). Between now and July 4th, we may have a pattern similar to the May 7th episode, a sharp thrust up of a day or two a reaction, and then after July 4th another run. My strategy will be to get out of the 3 Q member at an appropriate time tomorrow (possibly waiting until afternoon), dumping few losers, and running with the expanded core and some of the other swing traders accumulated here for some 10% to 20% profits, if I can get these, gradually reducing exposure by the second or third week of July to the 65% to 85% cash level again, and zipping back the bear suit for the summer doldrums (g). Zeev

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (86963)	6/26/2002 11:07:26 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev, after looking at some charts tonight, I've come to the conclusion that I missed a very obvious indicator that always is a sign to cover shorts and go long - the daily pierced the lower BB and closed above it. That is a signal that Al (Steve's program) trades successfully (I'm surprised Al didn't get a buy today). That either signals a flag going out to the middle BB or 13-day or 20-day EMA, or a rise up to the middle BB at a minimum. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G The ADX + did not reach the level of the May low, so we may not have the run we had at that time. I would tend to agree with the target of 1526-1555, as that meshes well with the middle BB, MA's, and normal expected bounce off a low like this. If this is a low that will be tested (and it should be) we'll have ample opportunity to go long and / or cover shorts at that time and re-load in the direction of the trend. You may have seen the BB thing at the end of the session when many of us were looking at other stuff. Sometimes it's the most obvious things that we miss. Here's a chart for JNPR from mid to end January illustrating what I'm talking about. Notice the low at 12.78, the re-test 2-days later, and the run to the 13-day EMA, followed by a drop. The action after the close above the lower BB is what we need to watch. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[d20020118,20020326][pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!i!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lg!Li10,10!Lh5,5!Lp14,3,3!Ll14]&pref=G Again, good call on holding the traders overnite. I believe you've got a very prudent game plan based upon what I've been seeing. My plan is to exit puts on the re-test (I re-loaded near the middle of the Dow gap fill) and get some calls for Max Pain in July. I did make better than a 2-bagger on the puts I closed this AM (purchased about 2-weeks ago), so I'm still doing OK.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (86963)	6/27/2002 1:15:36 AM
From: SirRealist	Respond to of 99280

Channelwise, there's room for a 2 day run to 1625 without the bear departing. TA-wise, resistance is strongest at 1441, 1495, 1562-1574 and 1595-1601. On one set of charts, I can plot out hitting a low of 1253 (my target) as late as July 26th. On another, I can plot it as early as Friday. Nothing requires us to hit the channel top, either. we could yoyo all the way to the 26th. Personally, I think we're watching an epic struggle by the CBs to regain a better buying position in gold and they may be triggering the morning drops by buying early gold and abandoning their buying as gold prices peak. As gold prices settle, they buy the bigs to create false index rallies. I'm starting to think of letting gold go till the XAU reaches 68.5 because the next 2-3 days could produce a headshake that takes 4 weeks of waiting before a peak comes. In fact, considering the powers of the CBs and the charts, the XAU could dip to 62.50 and still find a new high in July. Because of the different looks the market is providing at least twice weekly, I've abandoned the effort to compare this with any 2002-2000 bottom-setting dips. I think July is gonna daze and amaze all month, even the shrewdest index watchers who trade intraday. But a re-look at the XAU certainly looks head&shoulderish... wish I'd seen it earlier.... like this morning. But after reviewing individual golddiggers, I see varying times for each to re-peak. Setting up for a confusing grind-grind of a month ahead. Non-gold stocks could cycle in and out of earnings runs (or drops)during this month, as well. Confusion times two. Assuming a non-pattern is the new pattern, Thursday should rocket and Friday should droop, Monday will be up and then we drift down all week. Yes, I've lost my marbles. But I think only those thinking outside the box, those 100% cash, and those patient enough to wait a few weeks can win this period. A vacation might prove the least stressful and most productive of all choices.