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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (86965)	6/26/2002 10:52:25 PM
From: augieboo	Respond to of 99280

Zeev, thanks for the "heads up." I'll send out an update-update ASAP. <g>

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (86965)	6/26/2002 11:22:51 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Well, Zeev, this may end up being another incredible call, but I think that it is very odd that with nearly every ta indicator giving a much better signal than the Feb low, you only expect the same percentage rally. Most of the indicators are as or nearly as extreme as April 2001. I would expect more than 15% but less than the 25% I thought earlier. I'll say we can get to 1620, if todays low holds, and especially if it is retested, and broken slightly. The nasdaq bp is very troubling and the reason for my adjustment down. The fact that we have a small window before mid to late August also suggests to me that the wind will be in the bulls faces. Thanks for your efforts.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (86965)	6/27/2002 12:15:06 AM
From: gfs_1999	Respond to of 99280

Zeev, GNT from May, 21 to June 27 has 9 days where Nas ticks are under 1000. I think you want to see at least 3 GNT one near other to fit your model right?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (86965)	6/27/2002 1:10:05 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev here is my prognosis, not as specific as yours but how I see things. Posted on my board on the FOOL. ========================================================= There certainly was no capitulation. The agony will continue. It is written in the cards. Hedge funds and the PPT are clearly driving this market. Every time on the verge of collapse and panic, defeat is snatched from the jaws of victory. Today seems so orchrastrated, once again. Almost as if someone knew that WCOM was gonna drop a bomb last night, shorted the crap out of it and decided to cover at the open willy nilly. A quick 2 points on a bunch of crap or 1 point on the QQQ's, wam bam thank you mam. How many of these we gonna have? This was the third one recently. ORCL WCOM and I forget what the third was all about. We may indeed rally from here. If we do, I will miss it except for intraday scalps. Might miss it completely. This grinding is the way of the bear right now. Yesterday I was deeply bothered by the fact that there just was too much concensus for capitulation and a rally. When is everyone right? Bulls and Bears were calling for a rally here after a panic selloff. Sorry, no panic. Oddly enough, there is a far better chance of capitulation now. Why? Because in a single day, nearly everyone has given up on it! There just are too many reasons not to jump in long here. 1) No capitulation 2) Not even fear 3) Horrid charts 4) Poor market internals. Looking ahead at Max Pain. I see pain to the max. QQQ Max pain is nearly a tossup between 27 and 28. MSFT Max Pain is 55 and we are nearly there. CSCO is well below pain at 15. INTC is well below pain at 25. 2 QQQ points. Is that it? All these call for a rally of perhaps 100 Naz points or so. The question is when to play for pain. A lot can happen in a couple weeks. We could still get capitulation, or we can just flop about and grind either up or down, while time premium gets sucked out of whichever way the market moves. Also max pain can change dramatically. MSFT has heavy call positions at 60, and recent action is such that it seems to run right up to the block point then selloff at the last moment. CSCO can easily runup a point on an upgrade wam bam slam. Still, 100 points is 100 points and if I was convinced it was coming I sure would step up to the plate. I am not convinced it it coming. This is not September or March. There is mistrust and scandals everywhere. Sideline cash is a myth, and short covering and hedge funds are providing the only rallies (with periodic intervention from the PPT). Oddly enough the DOW looks weaker to me right now. A bigger drop today, a drop that was not bought at the open like the S&P and Naz was. Not sure why but perhaps they getting tired of propping that sucker up. We will see. The only sensible action to me seems to be shorting the weak ones and perhaps buying the strong ones on a day to day basis perhaps on the basis of TRIN or TRINQ or support/resistance etc. I see no reason to hold much long or short overnight here (other than leaps or longer term options, and/or small "core" positions (of which I have none). After this drop, given the uncertainty about direction, a heavy cash position looks best to me. If forced to guess, up seems more likely than down, but risk reward does not seem so favorable. Haircuts are very heavy everywhere. JNPR bit the dust today. Who is next? Storage looks very weak as well. Is QLGC gonna warn? Maybe we gap and crap big time tomorrow and Friday. That's the best we can hope for. In the meantime gold stocks sure look weak to me. If a rally does get going, I expect gold stocks to get hammered. We will see. M

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (86965)	6/27/2002 5:32:13 AM
From: Steve Lee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev, Do you really think the markets can rally with the possibility of a US govt debt default tomorrow? Or are you expecting the ceiling to be raised today? This debt limit issue is what I believe to be the main short term driver of the dollar and stock decline over the last few weeks.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (86965)	6/27/2002 5:49:14 AM
From: Jim Cash	Respond to of 99280

Unreal... Yesterday the Nasacare was "over" when coincedently the Nasdaq rallied hard to around +15. Sold off ten points and now the Nassacare is back on. Zeev you are getting your followers KILLED. Kind of like looking out the window to "predict" the weather.