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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gfs_1999 who wrote (86975)	6/27/2002 12:31:34 AM
From: samim anbarcioglu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

<<A far more serious plunge than even the Bears expect short term may be necessary to produce this phenomenon in this time frame. When your gut is telling you, "I need to get out no matter what", that will be when a panic low is most likely. I am not convinced we have reached that point quite yet, despite today's reversal.>> Please, just somebody make me understand why this is a necessity as described by so many posters. Is this a law of nature? Or is it a common mantra found in most of the books people read. Who says with what authority that this is a law of nature and we will see most people (and of course this is not you) throw their hands up in the air and say "get me out please", and not come back to the game for another 2 - 3 decades. And while you are at it, I would also appreciate it if you could explain why this is a good thing for the game, that most of the players perish and go out of the game for good.

To: gfs_1999 who wrote (86975)	6/27/2002 1:36:14 AM
From: SirRealist	Respond to of 99280

One thing that really bothers us here is the amount of publicity about the probability of some sort of panic, or so called "capitulation low" in this time frame as is being given by the press. Certainly, there are thousands of sophisticated traders who understand the dynamics and importance of panic lows. However, when this forecast, or expectation, is being repeated over and over in the press, it diminishes the probability of it happening, at least of it happening the way and when the street might now expect. Rarely do market bottoms occur when and where most of the street expects them. Something different will have to occur. Panic lows do not occur until most investors are in fact, truly "panicked", and we do not sense that here. A far more serious plunge than even the Bears expect short term may be necessary to produce this phenomenon in this time frame. When your gut is telling you, "I need to get out no matter what", that will be when a panic low is most likely. I am not convinced we have reached that point quite yet, despite today's reversal. I concur. Those who haven't washed out in the past 27 months are more astute (or luckier), so the common wisdom of the survivors requires extra manipulation to catch 'em off-guard. We could take 3 weeks to hit 1600 and hit 1250 in the fourth, without breaking our channel that began in March. But I suspect the next 5 days will prove the most inconclusive. Oh goody (thud).