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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (2906)	6/27/2002 4:34:36 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

Max Pain keeps dropping. Went to $27 from $28 yesterday to today and down from $31 a few weeks ago.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (2906)	6/27/2002 4:39:42 PM
From: Jeff	Respond to of 30712

Could turn down as soon as tomorrow. And so I just add to shorts and wait. good idea bud.....once they get a painted high.....they might all try and beat each other out the door before the lipstick comes off the pigs and cinderella turns ugly again....<gg>

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (2906)	6/27/2002 5:29:30 PM
From: exp	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

Justa, the lack of capitulation at VIX 36 and VXN 65 is very telling (i.e., lack of high volume selling and lack of -1000 ticks). This market will not rally until we get a capitulative panic low. SPX is below 1000 and VIX is only at 30. I was expecting some major low around June 28 with COMPQ around 1300-1350 on a closing basis. Now, Carpino expects a further market drop in July and I agree that we will break Sept 01 lows on COMPQ and SPX in July and maybe this way we'll get some capitulative low from which market can counter-rally in summer. Fall 02 will bring another major market low coinciding with the Dow breaking Sept 01 lows and COMPQ probably dropping to 1100-1200 area. Like Zeev says, maybe a gradual market decline over months is preferable to an outright market crash from a socio-economic point of view. CAVEAT: I am a swing/position trader so I will follow the charts and not necessarily my bearish opinions expressed above.