Paul, we're on the same page. Yesterday's NASDAQ action was a one-day-wonder of a "rally," and today is a reversal candle.
COMP
stockcharts.com[g,a]daclyyay[dc][pb20!d20,2!d20,2.5!d20,3!b50!b100!b150!b200][vc60][iub14!lp5,3,5!lp10,3,10!lp14,3,14!la8,17,9!ll14!lc5!lq3,10!lf][J4661824,Y]&listNum=8
NDX
stockcharts.com[g,a]daclyyay[dc][pb20!d20,2!d20,2.5!d20,3!b50!b100!b150!b200][vc60][iub14!lp5,3,5!lp10,3,10!lp14,3,14!la8,17,9!ll14!lc5!lq3,10!lf][J4661900,Y]&listNum=8
The SPX, stockcharts.com[g,a]daclyyay[dc][pb20!d20,2!d20,2.5!d20,3!b50!b100!b150!b200][vc60][iub14!lp5,3,5!lp10,3,10!lp14,3,14!la8,17,9!ll14!lc5!lq3,10!lf][J4215663,Y]&listNum=8 OEX, stockcharts.com[g,a]daclyyay[dc][pb20!d20,2!d20,2.5!d20,3!b50!b100!b150!b200][vc60][iub14!lp5,3,5!lp10,3,10!lp14,3,14!la8,17,9!ll14!lc5!lq3,10!lf][J4215660,Y]&listNum=8 , and DOW, stockcharts.com[g,a]daclyyay[dc][pb20!d20,2!d20,2.5!d20,3!b50!b100!b150!b200][vc60][iub14!lp5,3,5!lp10,3,10!lp14,3,14!la8,17,9!ll14!lc5!lq3,10!lf][J4872012,Y]&listNum=8, are all lagging about a day behind, which makes them appear more bullish at first glance. But they are not going to fool this fluffy white doggy that easily! <g> All three -- SPX, OEX, and DOW -- simply had today the somewhat longer real bodies which the COMP and NDX had yesterday.
To make myself a bit clearer, (I hope), consider that if you combined yesterday's price action with today's price action on all five indexes, what you'd wind up with is five indecisive looking candles. This fits perfectly with your retest thesis, as the candles are saying they aren't sure which way things are going.
The same analysis applies to the SOXX, stockcharts.com[g,a]daclyyay[dc][pb20!d20,2!d20,2.5!d20,3!b50!b100!b150!b200][vc60][iub14!lp5,3,5!lp10,3,10!lp14,3,14!la8,17,9!ll14!lc5!lq3,10!lf][J4221996,Y]&listNum=8 , and the BTK, stockcharts.com[g,a]daclyyay[dc][pb20!d20,2!d20,2.5!d20,3!b50!b100!b150!b200][vc60][iub14!lp5,3,5!lp10,3,10!lp14,3,14!la8,17,9!ll14!lc5!lq3,10!lf][J4660717,Y]&listNum=8 , IMHO. In both cases, if we combine the price action yesterday and today, what we wind up with is a candle with little or no upper shadow, and a lower shadow that is 1.5+ times the length of the real body, with both real bodies positioned right along side the real bodies of the candles from earlier in the week. The only difference is that those candles had longer upper shadows while this composite candle would have a long lower shadow. Again, at best, the candles are saying, "CONVINCE ME."
The S&P Mids, stockcharts.com[g,a]daclyyay[dc][pb20!d20,2!d20,2.5!d20,3!b50!b100!b150!b200][vc60][iub14!lp5,3,5!lp10,3,10!lp14,3,14!la8,17,9!ll14!lc5!lq3,10!lf][J4215661,Y]&listNum=8 , and Smalls, stockcharts.com[g,a]daclyyay[dc][pb20!d20,2!d20,2.5!d20,3!b50!b100!b150!b200][vc60][iub14!lp5,3,5!lp10,3,10!lp14,3,14!la8,17,9!ll14!lc5!lq3,10!lf][J4215665,Y]&listNum=8 , further illustrate the same premise. |
