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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (20396)	6/27/2002 8:01:54 PM
From: marek_wojna	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<<while consumer spending, driven by powerful demographic forces, parties on.>> Are they planning to write off existing consumer debt to start new shopping spree? Or maybe US will introduce new magic credit card with no limit, no minimum payments, no monthly statements to keep the morale of the consumers at proper level?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (20396)	6/27/2002 8:17:17 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi ACF Mike, <<It's a treacherous, depressing, dismal world you live in>> ... Help is on the way, for Marek:0) morganstanley.com <<Stephen Roach ... Corporate America is not alone in cooking its books ... Washington statisticians ... stunning rewrite of the recent performance of the US economy. So much for the boom! ... so-called benchmark revision of the national economic statistics -- an annual restatement of recent economic history based largely on more complete (and presumably more accurate) samples of underlying activity ... to be released on 31 July. ... straws in the wind ... significant downward adjustment to GDP growth over the three-year revision period, 1999-2001 ... on three fronts -- capital spending, foreign trade in services, and personal income ... are not likely to be trivial ... aggregate growth were lowered by at least one percentage point in either or both of these years. ... Little wonder the dollar is now under such pressure, as foreign investors reconsider their once seemingly voracious appetite for dollar-denominated assets. Finally, there’s the Holy Grail of the recent bubble to consider -- productivity growth ... the recent productivity bonanza was nothing more than the arithmetic by-product of "capital deepening," there should be a close correspondence between a reduced pace of capital spending and lower growth in output-per-hour. And so another key building block of the New Economy gets called into serious question. ... the government’s national income accountants are hardly in the same boat as those at Arthur Andersen, both groups of professionals ... numbers ... told to trust have simply turned out to be wrong -- wrong for companies, wrong for the economy at large, and wrong in the eyes of financial markets ... "There are three kinds of lies ...>> Enough, I had to avert my eyes, too afraid to read on, as the killer pigs are about to be released into the midst of weakened bulls. Chugs, Jay

To: AC Flyer who wrote (20396)	6/27/2002 8:59:18 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

how would you know? you are a cousin removed and n. ireland in your resolve. and went to a second rate business school. and you are proud to manufacture out of your supposed country... dude. you are a schizoprenic cross between the carpathian and the titantic. in the end i think you'll tilt to the seabed side. you have not shed your sad dialogue with benthamites.. meaning.. you're still thinking number one out of context. have fun. i know i am watching. and please please, don't leave. i want to know how your story will end.

To: AC Flyer who wrote (20396)	6/28/2002 1:40:01 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 74559

>>What the bears are missing is the power of boomer demographics<< You mean the baby boomers will carry the decade (and then drop dead or switch to the liability side because of old age and health problems - see Rabbit Angstrom) So much resilience?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (20396)	6/28/2002 6:14:54 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Oh no ACF, don't go over to the dark side. <The bears feel the consumer is tapped out and will shortly drop dead. What the bears are missing is the power of boomer demographics. My pov is that as soon as business investment returns, we'll be partying like it's 1999 until about, oh, 2009, when the shit'll really hit the fan. We'll all be pining for the good 'ol days way back in '02 then. > While it's true that the USA baby-boomer economic production bust will be going on then, keep in mind that the USA is only 300 million of 6,000 million people. Most of the 6,000 million are young. Check out India and China for example. If they continue to ditch the idea of Marxism which they adopted from their colonists, they will come rampaging out of poverty like Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea did. The USA will still own a lot of stuff and USA companies will take part in development of those global markets, with profits to match. The world won't come to an end because the baby-boomer lump goes into its dotage. The fun has just begun. Mqurice