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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (87748)	6/27/2002 10:47:02 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

interesting that the discussion is focused almost solely on a "retest" -- The idea that a supposed "retest" could be so close in price to an earlier low put in back in Sept seems kind of funny to me. I think in 3 trading days or less we'll be not testing the low -- but breaking it. If it doesn't happen, I'll readjust my stance, but very few think this is possible. Not only did equity p/c put in a very sharp reversal today -- the type of "bottom" that we had yesterday is simply atypical in a number of respects with others we've had -- the only exception I know of occured in February -- but it wasn't around the same level as a prior significant low.

To: ajtj99 who wrote (87748)	6/27/2002 10:50:19 PM
From: eddieww	Respond to of 99280

Whether today could be considered a re-test of yesterday's bottom depends on your definition. Today's bottom on the ndx was just less than 3% above yesterday's bottom. I really have no expectation of whether we will rally from here, bounce, dip and re-test, or dip and fail. I do think we're due for a week or two of rally, and maybe a little more, but am agnostic about whether it's already started...although I am long QQQ a small position. I think there is a very high probability of seeing compx 1550; a better than even chance of >1600; slightly less than even of reaching 1696; and a small chance of 1760+ before Labor Day. As for "THE" bottom? I have nightmares about where and when that might be. -nfg- "Whenever things sound easy, it turns out there's one part you didn't hear." ~Jane Bryant Quinn