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Non-Tech : Investor Sentiment -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: xtahce who wrote (13)6/28/2002 5:34:48 AM
From: Steve Lee  Respond to of 53
 
Do you know if stockcharts have a symbol for equity only P/C? I believe $CPC is equity and index. I think an equity only measure is more useful. I have the 10 DMA of equity only P/C at 0.765 currently - a middle of the road figure.

On the subject of P/C, you will enjoy this article from Jim Nissen. It is from 1983 but still very interesting:

qtt.homestead.com

Here is a quote:

"I began to notice a strange but consistent pattern. Increased volume in high-priced options tends to be a contrary indicator. But higher volume in inexpensive options usually is a leading indicator. Thus, before advances, volume typically increases in low-priced calls and high-priced puts. And before market declines, volume increases in low-priced puts and high-priced calls."

He goes on to describe an indicator that attempts to take account of this and boil it down to a simple number, which can be used as a measure of sentiment.

It is particularly interesting because it uses a dollar weighted P/C. I have always been concerned that the P/C can be skewed by someone for instance buying a large amount of speculative low priced options and having an unduly large influence on the P/C number, although the amount of dollars behind that sentiment is comparatively small.



To: xtahce who wrote (13)8/6/2002 7:09:42 PM
From: xtahce  Respond to of 53
 
Update: Refer to Message #13....watch to see if this is a reversal in the 2 1/2 yr trend and not just a test of the uptrend (as it did in mid-March this year). It should break below 75/76 and hold!
If it bounces to the upside, and remember it is a lagging indicator, I'm sure we'll see failure signs in most of the other indicators we watch sooner.

stockcharts.com[w,a]dallnyay[df][pb10][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]

Stay flexible

Liz