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To: Earlie who wrote (176102)	6/28/2002 9:30:34 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Earlie, (ODB, reaper) - you guys see my question yesterday about CHPC? Those guys certainly look terminal to me. Low margin (chip packaging), high debt, cash flow negative since the bubble burst. biz.yahoo.com biz.yahoo.com Highlights: (sorry I haven't figured out a good way to copy yahoo balance sheets) Total Revenue $79,213,000 $76,807,000 $74,662,000 $87,373,000 Cost Of Revenue $69,658,000 $70,900,000 $72,637,000 $75,913,000 Gross Profit $9,555,000 $5,907,000 $2,025,000 $11,460,000 Interest Expense $8,647,000 $9,481,000 $9,445,000 $9,456,000 Income Before Tax ($11,045,000) ($53,242,000) ($16,441,000) ($9,392,000) Cash Flow Financing Activities Sale Of Stock $65,307,000 $22,000 $3,014,000 $119,000 Net Borrowings ($26,047,000) $23,630,000 $18,236,000 $29,623,000 Cash Flows From Financing Activities $39,260,000 $23,652,000 $21,250,000 $29,742,000 Change In Cash And Cash Equivalents $22,473,000 $15,964,000 $12,344,000 $6,040,000 Cash And Cash Equivalents $64,345,000 $41,872,000 $25,908,000 $13,564,000 Absent the financing activities, they'd already be under. And look how they responded to 9/11: stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G Penny for your thoughts (penny stock, hopefully). BC

To: Earlie who wrote (176102)	6/28/2002 9:43:58 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Am I the only fool that reads the "Retained Earnings" line of a balance sheet? SFAM's last four quarters, getting a tout this AM. Last four quarters, most recent first: Retained Earnings ($418,072,000) ($407,639,000) ($345,981,000) ($328,977,000) I love this line, too: Net Tangible Assets $18,127,000 $27,937,000 $89,582,000 $105,941,000 They should be required to publish these numbers in any release on earnings info. BC

To: Earlie who wrote (176102)	6/28/2002 9:55:26 AM
From: reaper	Respond to of 436258

<<Haven't a clue as to how to take advantage of it>> Ford and GM would be a good start; the residuals in their financing subsidiaries are likely well over-stated (like what you think is the case at IBM). ACF also isn't a bad play. When they re-possess they sell the car. IF used car prices start to crater, then recoveries will go down and they'll have trouble. CarMax could also be a play. They will be helped on some level by lower used car prices. But they are also in the auto finance game (they do prime and farm out most of the sub-prime stuff to ACF) so you could have a situation where residuals are not up to snuff. You could also go after Delphi and Visteon. These are the leading parts sellers to the big OEMs (Ford, GM, etc). Very low margins, and near as I can tell returns on capital that are below their cost of capital. Very little to no free cash flow despite lots of "EBITDA". Troubling pension obligations. In my opinion neither is worth much more than book. The play here is that cratering used car prices hurts new car and thus parts sales. You could consider hedging with companies like Asbury Automotive or Lithia. These are auto dealers. Lithia I know is not involved in the finance business, and I don't think Asbury is either; they just farm it out to finance players. They sell new and used. Their businesses will be hurt, but not as badly, and the stocks are very cheap relative to cash generation. Cheers