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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: High-Tech East who wrote (13113)	6/28/2002 10:29:52 AM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

how can dollar strengthen and stocks rally whille economy deteriorates? I think ST rally will alleviate your issues, but mt-lt dollar has started its decline

To: High-Tech East who wrote (13113)	6/28/2002 10:59:11 AM
From: Terry Whitman	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 19219

I am certainly more bullish on the market here than I am the dollar. But I think both will soon rise. Why? Call it the bathtub analogy. The market fills up like a bathtub. The first in are at the bottom of the tub- the last one's in are near the surface. At the market top, the drain plug is pulled. The smart money leaves first, since they are at the bottom. The last ones in are near the surface, and are the last ones to drain out. At the top of the tub are the emotional investors(un-smart money), and foreigners. They are the last to buy in, and the last to get out. I believe the biggest impetus behind this year's market selling has been foreign money pulling out. The falling dollar would tend to confirm that. If so, the bathtub must be very close to empty- which is where the smart money would be getting back in. TW

To: High-Tech East who wrote (13113)	6/30/2002 9:47:51 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Ken, if the USD stays stable or start to inch up it will confirm a bullish hammer. Further there is anecdotal evidence that the FED is not to happy with the sudden fall of the USD. From a fundamental point of view EZ is not even out of recession and may slide in a second dip as exports will falter. At 9.1% unemployment and over 2.5% budget deficits in Germany France and Italy there is not a lot of hope if exports weaken. ..... on a daily basis the EUR went parabolic since June 17 over 5.5% why to fast by any measure. In the meantime wages are rising / rose at an over 4% pace in EZ which compounds the problems for EZ exporters. In other words since April the unit cost in EZ rose by around 14% to 15% which will wipe out any profits from exports. On an adjusted basis the EUR was around 0.88 in April and now at 0.993 x 4%=1.033 or so wage adjusted. IMHO the US economy will recover faster due to the lower USD, starting with the hospitality industry. those are my 2 cents.