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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (3712)	6/29/2002 12:19:21 PM
From: Pink Minion	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95520

I have not been in denial during and after the bubble You admit there was a dot-com bubble but what about a stock market bubble? And do you think we just deflate this bubble by selling some stocks and we go on our merry way? Ask yourself what has happened after every bubble in the history of economics? Forget 1930's, there are many other cycles to compare to. I hope I'm wrong and Greenspan and his printing machine can make it different this time. >>What you ignore is that in a world dominated by crooks and charlatans, companies that add real value, legitimately, will have many investors beating a path to their doors. I didn't say that but these crooks and charlatans are just a minor sideshow to the grand affect of the bubble. Even legit company's suffer when the money runs out, especially ones at the end of the food chain. But if you can pick the ones that add shareholder value (book value) then you deserve the rewards. >> I think your "below book value" for AMAT, ASML, KLAC, and NVLS is just a bear smoking the same thing the dot com bulls were. I didn't say that, I answered to "Anyone here still think the semi equips aren't going to break Sept lows?". It might take 5 years but I'll bet 1 out of 4 of those will one day sell at book value. Why is this so radical when that's what capital equipment makers sell for (in a mature industry) at bear market lows? And if you believe the money will one day run out like it did in telecom, then that sounds like some good reality smoke to me. I know this is very hard to imagine even if you're just sipping that 90's Kool-Aid. If you think we are still in a bull market or that semi's are not in a maturing industry, then I really can't argue with that. I believe semi sales in 1995 ($150m) were higher than they are now. If you average it over 7 years you might get some growth but no way is it the %20+ hypergrowth of the past. I could be wrong but that's what makes a market.