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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: kodiak_bull who wrote (14730)6/28/2002 1:42:27 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23153
 
Where have you gone, Joe DiMaggio?

Commentary: Main Street fed up with Wall Street
By Dr. Irwin Kellner, CBS MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:18 PM ET June 28, 2002




NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- As the United States economy rounds the midyear turn, Main Street is losing patience with Wall Street. There has developed a crisis of confidence in Corporate America that could put the kibosh on the nascent economic recovery.

Let me be even blunter than my colleague, Rex Nutting. People's faith in today's corporate leaders is rapidly eroding - along with the credibility of the financial statements their firms release.

Left unchecked, this loss of confidence in Wall Street could affect Main Street. It would be a case of the tail wagging the dog.

You can see this in the latest consumer confidence surveys. Both the University of Michigan's survey of consumer sentiment and the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence fell in June from their May readings.

It's not the economy that's responsible for this dour mood. The unemployment rate declined in May, while consumer prices were unchanged compared with the previous month.

Economic growth may have slowed in the second quarter compared with the previous quarter's 6.1 percent surge, but everyone knew this would happen, since the first quarter benefited from a one-time swing in business inventory policies.

But the economic recovery seems alive and well. Thanks to the lowest interest rates in close to 40 years, housing is raising the roof, carrying a bunch of industries along with it.

Many homeowners are now on their third mortgage refinancing. This has freed up cash for spending, but not for investing - at least not in the stock market.

As people have told me time and again these past few months, "How can we be expected to risk our hard-earned money by buying shares in companies whose leaders are nothing more than common criminals?"

And they are greedy as well. These "corpo-terrorists," as Rex Nutting calls them, make even Gordon Gekko look like a piker. I mean, after the first $10 million, how much more money do these CEO's need?

You would think they have found a way to take it with them when they finally check out of this world.

And guess what produced this era of "greed is good." Yep, it was the Tax Act of 1993, which, among other things, denied companies a tax deduction for any payment above $1 million a year, unless it was "performance-based."

This was supposed to keep executive pay down. In reality, it did just the opposite; human nature did the rest.

Corporate boards granted huge chunks of stocks and options to their leaders to fortify their pay. In theory, this was supposed to align managements' interest with that of the shareholders.

The big mistake was basing these grants on the performance of stock prices, instead of more fundamental measures like sales, market share, or even (gasp) innovation. To goose stock prices higher, many CEOs cut dividends and leveraged their balance sheets with huge slugs of debt.

And these were the legitimate ploys. There were others, like capitalizing operating expenses and booking revenues before they were earned, that clearly pushed the envelope. As for the accountants and auditors, they must have been asleep at the switch.

So many companies have been forced to restate their earnings in the past few years, one wonders if the profits boom of the 1990s was nothing but a dream. For many investors, it turned out to be a nightmare.

________________________
Dr. Irwin Kellner, chief economist for CBS.MarketWatch.com, is the Weller professor of economics at Hofstra University.



To: kodiak_bull who wrote (14730)6/28/2002 4:44:41 PM
From: chowder  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 23153
 
>>> Where is Dabum? In the garden? <<<

My garden is rewarding me for all the work I've been doing of late.

Of all the gin joints in all the world, you came to mine for an analysis of the markets.

About a month or so ago, Susan Byrne, the Diva of Dallas, was on CNBC. (Susan is the analyst that was pumping KWK while we were shorting it.) Now Susan is the ever optimist about the markets and this bothered me some, especially since I have a secret crush on her. Susan, Susan .... how can you be so optimistic when the markets are doing so poorly? C'mon, don't destroy my image of you!

Susan said you shouldn't focus on the downside, something is always moving up, you just have to look for it. "You just have to look for it!" I like that.

As you are aware, from private messaging back and forth, I have chosen to stop playing the market short. I have made this decision, not because I don't think there isn't any more downside to come, but because we have dropped so far, I think there are better short term opportunities to the upside.

Earlier in the week, I mentioned to you that the SOX was positioned for a technical move to the upside. I also mentioned that I took a large position in AMD because it had been recently upgraded and I thought it would benefit from the move in the SOX.

AMD has had a nice move this week and I sold 80% of my position into the close today.

stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[pb10!b50!b200!c20!f][vc60][iut!Lh14,3]&pref=G

If it pulls back next week, I may buy it again, depending on the technicals and the condition of the market.

I think a sideways market is beneficial from the standpoint that there are more bulls out there than bears. It's human nature. I plan to continue following Susan's advice and look for the sectors and/companies that look like they are due for a short term bounce.

Will the market fall further? Maybe. But what percentile are we dealing with? Six months or a year from now, will we be looking at a chart that shows this point in time as the bottom 20%? If so, wouldn't it be prudent to focus on the 80%?

Even in the worst of times, something is always going up. Most of us weren't able to participate in too many sectors because we followed fundamental analysis and there's only so many companies you can follow with this methodology. Technical analysis allows us to follow the entire market. It doesn't matter what sector you look at, if a price is closing up and over a 20 dma, you know the price is rising. If the volume is above average, you know institutions are buying. Follow the money.

Now if you'll excuse me, Susan and I have a plane to catch, while our good friend Rick keeps the inspector at bay.

Play it again Sam!

dabum



To: kodiak_bull who wrote (14730)6/29/2002 10:03:30 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 23153
 
Of Two Minds on Martha Stewart

By Ellen Goodman
The Washington Post
Saturday, June 29, 2002

BOSTON -- And so we find the woman standing at the newsstand. In her right hand there's a copy of Newsweek with a headline: "Martha's Mess." In her left hand, there's a copy of Martha Stewart Living with a labor-intensive red, white and blue berry tart on the cover.

Carefully, the woman tucks them into the collection of stories in her briefcase, each of which bears a similar headline: "Martha in Hell's Kitchen"; "Come Clean"; "Scandal Leaves Untidy Stain"; "Insider Trading Is Not a Good Thing."

She turns to leave when suddenly, out of nowhere, she finds herself trapped in a battle. One woman with two mind-sets.

"Isn't it terrible about Martha Stewart?" says her Ego with a sympathetic frown.

"Just awful," answers her Alter with a thinly repressed smirk.

"I'm thinking of the snide coverage," says Ego sternly, "This is way out of hand. Why didn't they put ImClone CEO Sam Waksal on the cover? Why Martha?"

"I'm thinking about the legal accusations," retorts Alter. "Is it possible that a woman running a $295 million company, a director of the New York Stock Exchange for gawd's sakes, would risk it all to end up saving $43,000 in a stock deal? Are the rich that different from you and me?"

"Wait a minute. We're not talking about the rich. We're talking about the sisterhood," says Ego, narrowing her eyes suspiciously. "You know the drill: The blonder they are, the harder they fall. Someone's always lying in wait for the uppity woman. We have to defend her. She's one of us."

"One of us?" squeaks Alter. "Not unless we too trim our poached eggs with scissors!" Alter flips furiously through the Living magazine. When she gets to the page that holds Martha's calendar, she adds: "She's not one of us unless we're also going to use July 2 to 'vacuum grills on all appliances.' "

Ego blanches but she's not done yet. "Come on," she says, "Martha is a self-made tycoon from a working-class family. She's a survivor. She's been sneered at, parodied and kept going. Remember when she told Larry King, 'There's still a little bit of inequality at the top.' You aren't going to deny that, are you? You want to know how to spell 'glee' at her troubles? S-e-x-i-s-m."

"Ego, you're paranoid. We've had enough stories about female whistleblowers in the past weeks to make virtue a single-sex business school. Remember Coleen Rowley at the FBI? Remember Sherron Watkins at Enron? This Martha media blitz is nothing but an equal opportunity arrow slung at the greedy class."

"Oh, sure," huffs Ego. "Tell me then, why is it when a woman finally gets inside, she becomes a target for the woman-haters?"

"Tell me," snipes Alter, "why is it when a woman finally gets inside she's likely to become one of the boys?"

The combatants glare at each and retreat to the opposite ends inside one woman's mind. Quietly, they peruse the Martha Stewart Web site for tips on saving tomato paste and folding napkins. They list the 1,900 Kmart stores she graces, the 40 books she's written, the cooking show on cable TV. And of course, the entry for July 8, "Harvest peas/ Meet with financial planner."

Calmed by the sight of Martha holding a basket of eggs on the corporate page, they try again.

"See," says Ego, "she made her fortune identifying a niche market for women."

"Yeah," says Alter slyly, " she made her fortune convincing women to spend their nights decorating the inside of the medicine cabinet. She's like the women who get six-figure advances so they can write books telling other women to be full-time mothers."

"Ah, now I get it. Martha doesn't make it into your sisterhood because selling sheets isn't politically correct?"

"She doesn't make it because her whole mystique was phony from the get-go."

"Hey, Alter, have you ever met Ralph Lauren?"

The duo go on, arguing out the great American love-hate relationship with Martha Stewart, deconstructing the national glee and chagrin at her legal woes. They pore over the cartoons of Martha fixing up her jail cell. They share quotes from her defenders who regard the flap as anti-feminist fuel.

"She's innocent until proved guilty. But she's already been condemned," says Ego, disheartened. "If we don't protect her from the media jackals, who will?"

"How come men don't feel that the future of all male CEOs rests on Ken Lay?" pipes up Alter.

Finally, Alter rests her weary finger on Martha's calendar. "Ego, do you know what she has planned for July 25? She's going to power wash mildew from her fences."

"Oh, my god," gasps Ego.

In the case of Martha Stewart, sisterhood is ambivalent.

© 2002 The Washington Post Company



To: kodiak_bull who wrote (14730)6/29/2002 10:12:55 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 23153
 
As an Image Tarnishes, Advertisers Start to Reconsider

By STUART ELLIOTT
The New York Times
6/28/02

The mounting difficulties confronting Martha Stewart, centered on questions about her sale of stock in ImClone Systems, are starting to unnerve the marketers and ad agencies that buy commercial time and advertising space on and in the media properties that bear her name.

Marketers say they are proceeding with plans to advertise in the Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia outlets like Martha Stewart Living magazine, the "Martha Stewart Living" syndicated television show and the Martha Stewart Web site (www.marthastewart.com), but they are hedging their statements with phrases like "at this point in time" or "for now." A week or two ago, they did not bother with such qualifications.

Advertisers, skittish types to begin with, are also saying they are closely monitoring consumer reaction to Ms. Stewart's problems. They are looking to gauge whether the intensifying publicity is damaging her brand or the ability of the media she owns to deliver the customers marketers seek.

"We're still pretty bullish on her media properties, but there may come a point where we have to re-evaluate our position if an investigation yields things that might affect the way people consume her media," said Peter Gardiner, partner and chief media officer at Deutsch, part of the Partnership division of the Interpublic Group of Companies. Deutsch represents Revlon, which advertises in assorted Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia properties.

Jon Mandel, co-chief executive for United States operations at MediaCom, the giant media services agency owned by the Grey Global Group, said: "Advertisers are mercenary. If the ratings stay the same, they'll stay in. If the ratings go down, they'll go away. And if they go up, perhaps more will come in."

It is too early to assess ratings trends for Ms. Stewart's weekday and weekend syndicated shows. And newsstand sales for the latest issue of Ms. Stewart's magazine, which has a July cover date, will not be available for several months.

Advertising in that issue, from blue-chip names like American Express, Home Depot, Johnson & Johnson, Kraft Foods, Sears and Toyota Motor, increased significantly from July 2001, to 136 pages from 108 pages, a gain of 25.9 percent, according to Media Industry Newsletter, a publication of PBI Media. But those pages were bought months ago, as is typical in the magazine business.

Allyn Magrino, a spokeswoman for Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia, said that information was not available on ad page sales for coming issues. For the year to date, the magazine has carried 999 ad pages, according to Media Industry Newsletter, up 1.6 percent from 983 for the first seven months of last year, at a time when many magazines are suffering double-digit percentage declines.

"I'm sure some advertisers have to be rethinking whether the association with Martha Stewart at this point in time should be put on hold until the situation clears up," said Michael Drexler, chief executive at Optimedia International USA, part of Optimedia International, another large media services agency.

"The real key is whether the audience responds to the property, the product, because that's what the advertiser buys," he added. "But in this situation, she is the product, so it's unfortunate that her image has become a little tarnished." Optimedia is part of the Zenith Optimedia Group, which is jointly owned by the Cordiant Communications Group and the Publicis Groupe.

George Fertitta, president of Margeotes/Fertitta & Partners, an agency known for creating campaigns for premium-priced products like Godiva chocolates, said: "Martha Stewart is a brand, and many brands are resilient. As resourceful as she is, she may find a way to turn this around."

Mr. Fertitta added, however, that because there "was already a question mark" over Ms. Stewart, generated by "the tendency to bring down people who are wildly successful in everything they do," she might not be able to draw down from "the reservoir of positive, good feelings" that many other media personalities use to help offset negative publicity.

"There may be people who feel they would rather see her lose than win," he said. Margeotes/Fertitta is part of the Maxxcom division of the MDC Corporation.

Mr. Mandel of MediaCom likened Ms. Stewart to a celebrity endorser because of the circumstances in which her media properties are perceived as an extension of her persona.

"There are probably some advertisers who look at this and say, `If she were doing a commercial for me, this would be in violation of the morals clause in the contract, and I wouldn't go near her anymore,' " Mr. Mandel said. The reference was to language that is standard in many contracts between a marketer and a pitchman or pitchwoman, providing escape clauses if events cause the celebrity to fall into disfavor with consumers.

Debate is lively as to what effect the coverage of Ms. Stewart's personal finances will have on the readers of her magazine, the viewers of her TV shows, the customers for her catalog merchandise and the visitors to her Web site.

"I still believe she's got a dedicated following," said Charlie Rutman, president of Carat USA, a big media services agency that is part of the Carat division of the Aegis Group.

"They are concerned about what's going on," he added, "but are they going to stop buying her magazine, her home furnishings, tomorrow? I don't think so. In the near term, there's no effect."

But there could be consequences, he said, "if the editorial content begins to suffer, if the programming begins to suffer, because her people become distracted and take their eye off the ball."

Some advertisers said yesterday that they did not think that was happening yet.

"We have no plans to cancel or change our presence in the magazines at this time," said Peg Holmes, a spokeswoman for General Motors, the largest national advertiser, which sells the GMC Envoy in Martha Stewart Living and other publications.

"As with all our advertising properties, we advertise to reach different consumers," she added, "and if a property isn't reaching consumers, we would re-evaluate it."

James Kenyon, a spokesman for another automaker, the Chrysler Group, a division of DaimlerChrysler, echoed Ms. Holmes's comment.

"We don't think this has affected our marketing arrangement to this point, and we are still pleased with it," Mr. Kenyon said. "We'll have to see what the future holds, but right now we're happy."

Less than two months ago, the Chrysler Group signed a multimillion-dollar marketing agreement with Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia, calling for the company's products to be advertised in media including the magazine, television and radio shows and the Web site. For example, Chrysler is the only automotive advertiser in a new monthly Road Trips section of Martha Stewart Living magazine; the section began appearing in the May issue and also appears in the July issue.

Another advertiser that recently signed an elaborate marketing deal with Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia is MasterCard International. The agreement, which centered on designating MasterCard as the "preferred card," includes commercials on the TV show, ads and advertorials in the magazine, banners on the Web site and logos in the catalog.

"As of right now, it's status quo," said Caryl Hahn, vice president for global media at MasterCard, because "there hasn't been any measurable change" in areas like visitors to the Web site or orders for magazine subscriptions or merchandise.

"If that changes, if we see something different with sales, subscriptions, we would re-evaluate as with any property," she added.