Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (2948)	6/28/2002 8:32:14 PM
From: augieboo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

Paul, have you had a chance to look at any 10 or 15 minute chart of the indices after today's close? They look to me like they were almost uniformly reversing (to the upside) in the last half hour or so. Do you think this could be something, or is it just EOQ paint/weirdness?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (2948)	6/28/2002 10:05:03 PM
From: exp	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

Paul, I think that I found a possible analogy on the charts between the current retest of Sept 01 lows and an earlier situation. I am referring to the retest of major March 2000 (May 2000 resp.) lows on SPX/DOW (COMP/NDX resp.). The retest occurred in Oct 2000 and was largely successful for a few weeks (except that "pierce and sucker" on various indexes occurred then) until the break in Nov 2000. See the weekly charts for the best view. I believe that Sept 01 lows may be similarly defended right now (with "pierce and sucker" occcurring on SPX and COMP) for a short few weeks and then by the end of July we resume a further drop on all indices. Notice how VIX has now reached a similar level as in Oct 2000 (which was exceeded later on in 2000). So the lows of this week may largely hold on the main indexes supporting a rally/bounce advocated by Zeev and others a la Feb 2002 rally/bounce. Once this is over we resume further decline toward COMP 1200-1300. All this is based on conjectural evidence of a desire by major market players to maintain the illusion of a successful retest of Sept 01 lows. In any case, a limited pause in a 6-month long decline at this important Sept 01 low level seems likely. I would be interested in your thoughts on this.