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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James R.Gross who wrote (3718)	6/28/2002 8:06:31 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95520

RE: " "With 1,300 CMP machines currently in use at various chipmakers, SpeedFam could up its share of the $1.6 billion market from 10% to 30% in three years,...Sales will ramp up fast, says Schmeidler, as the economy rebounds and as chipmakers seek next-generation chips." These 1300 machines were installed when SFAM had a much larger market share, 100% once. Their 10% share is due to competition primarily from AMAT. The installed base did not keep their share from falling and will not be a factor in increasing to 30%, if that happens. As the economy rebounds, sales will ramp for AMAT, NVLS, and LRCX, but I am not sure about SFAM. SemiBull, with some expertise in the area, agrees with you. I wonder if you have any other reasons for being positive on SFAM that were not stated in your post.

To: James R.Gross who wrote (3718)	6/29/2002 1:15:44 PM
From: JSLyons	Respond to of 95520

Don's six-month table shows SFAM up 81 pct YTD. In this environment, that's a good showing. Personally, I would take the money and run (I don't own SFAM, never have, so I can't). No on is saying SFAM won't make it; it may even flourish. But with AMAT entering the field aggressively and SFAM's balance sheet so week, it looks like the easy money has already been made. The risk-reward ratio ahead doesn't look to attractive. It would seem to me one's is better off with the leaders, a la Cary, or with the top niche/specialty players, which is my preference (KLIC, ASYT, ATMI, among others). I'd like to know when that money manager bought in, before touting it to the public. It reminds of the monthly mailing from one of my brokerages, touting stocks that somehow seem to have already made their moves. Finally, a cautionary tale: How many here remember Submicron (SUBM)? Same business. Good luck with your SFAM all the same. Rgds, Jonathan