Russia to abandon Iranian Chernobyl?
Does Stratfor have it right? 20 billion simolleans says they do. Putin is one kick heiny negotiator. Whoa! I am in awe. :o} Hot doggies!
stratfor.com
Russia Ending Involvement in Iranian Reactor
28 June 2002
Summary
There are growing signs Russia may not finish constructing the $800 million Bushehr nuclear plant in Iran. Although the plant would be a lucrative deal for the cash-starved Russian government, pressure from the United States, due to concerns that Iran may be trying to acquire nuclear weapons, may be too much for the increasingly pro-West Russian president to ignore. Iran will try to keep Russia engaged as long as possible, but in the meantime will be looking for Moscow's replacement.
Analysis
STRATFOR sources inside the Russian government say President Vladimir Putin has decided to gradually end Moscow's involvement in building a 1,000-maegawatt nuclear reactor at Bushehr, 500 miles south of Tehran. In bending to enormous U.S. government pressure, and yet not wanting to appear subservient, Putin will act quietly but surely.
This strategy is already evident in the deliberate leaking of recent internal government documents, including those detailing the failure of Russia to secure a guarantee that Iran will return spent nuclear fuel from the reactor -- which could be converted into weapons-grade plutonium -- to Moscow, the Guardian reported June 24. The Middle East Newsline also reports that Tehran is opposing a Moscow proposal to institute a stronger inspection regime for the Bushehr plant.
The future of the reactor has become a critical geopolitical issue for the United States, Iran, Russia, Israel and other Middle East and international players. Washington's efforts to block construction of the Bushehr plant come from a desire to prevent Tehran from gaining the ability to produce nuclear weapons.
The Iranian government denies the charge that it will use the plant to produce weapons-grade plutonium but believes it has the right to obtain and keep a nuclear arsenal until the current nuclear powers -- the United States, Russia, France, Britain, China, Israel, India and Pakistan -- agree to liquidate their arsenals. Iran is especially concerned about the nuclear capabilities of its two major geopolitical foes: the United States and Israel.
Moreover, if a conflict did break out with the United States, Washington's huge advantage in high-tech conventional weapons capabilities would quickly become apparent. Tehran thus believes it must acquire nuclear arms as a weapon of last resort, either to help counter Washington's military dominance or serve as a deterrent.
In Israel, the national security priority has been to make sure no Islamic nation can develop a nuclear capability. Israel wants to keep its strategic military edge over Muslim states in the Middle East, which is why its air force destroyed an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981.
With Iraq weakened by its Gulf War defeat and the resulting blockade -- and awaiting a possible U.S. military attack -- Israel's main concern about an Islamic atomic bomb rests with Iran. During U.S. President George W. Bush's visit to Russia last May, Israel sent a high-level government delegation to Moscow to make its case to both the Americans and Russians about shutting down construction on the Bushehr reactor.
After the end of the Cold War, and before Putin started changing his geopolitical orientation toward Washington post-Sept. 11, Russia enjoyed close military, technical and political cooperation with Iran. For instance, Moscow secured contracts and promises totaling almost $5 billion to sell conventional arms to Iran. But the single-most lucrative contract came when the Russian Atomic Energy Ministry reached the agreement with Iran to build the Bushehr plant for $800 million.
Unlike vague promises made by Washington to encourage U.S. investment in Russia, these deals brought Moscow immediate and much-needed cash. This is why the Russian government has been hesitant to bow to the U.S. demand to stop building the reactor even amid the growing U.S.-Russian alliance.
But intensifying pressure from Washington in the last few weeks forced Putin to make the hard geopolitical choice of gradually phasing out Russia's involvement in the Bushehr project. Iran will still try to finish the nuclear plant's construction -- projected to be about two years off -- with Moscow's help. Its tactics for buying time and keeping Russia engaged could include indefinitely delaying any new Russian-Iran agreements that would force Tehran to return spent fuel to Russia.
Tehran will use the fact that there is no clearly spelled promise by Iran to return all spent nuclear fuel to Russia in the current agreement. It will also point to the fact that the International Agency for Atomic Energy recently made an inspection of the Bushehr reactor and said that there has been no violation of the non-proliferation agreement found.
However, Washington will not relent in its pressure to stop the construction and has made it clear that no matter what Putin has already done, he should quit helping the Iranians with the Bushehr plant now. For instance, John Bolton, the U.S. undersecretary of state on arms control, has said the future of Washington's relationship with Moscow depends largely on whether Russia stops exporting dangerous weapons materials to Iran, Reuters reported June 11.
So although he will call for continued Russian-Iranian cooperation on the nuclear plant in public, Putin will quietly cooperate with Washington by first advancing new proposals on tighter international control over the nuclear reactor and then by sticking to his request to have all spent fuel returned. The number of Russian nuclear engineers and scientists working on the reactor will also be reduced to the minimum, and those remaining will not be able to complete the construction and secure the desired launch of the plant.
This will still not stop Iran's determination to have the reactor built and working. But Tehran will look to countries whose expertise can replace the current Russian effort. In fact, even though Russian nuclear expertise is by far the most advanced compared to all potential candidates, the government is already quietly talking with several nations on the matter, according to Iranian diplomatic sources in Europe.
Since Washington has made its position on Bushehr clear, many countries are not likely to help Iran with its construction, no matter how much they may be convinced that it is a peaceful project. Still, there are some states that might be willing to take the risk for either geopolitical or economic reasons, or both. Among them could be China, France, India, Brazil, South Africa, Belarus and Malaysia. |
