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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (88427)	6/29/2002 1:22:35 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Max Pain. Time for the "Max Pain Earlie Forecast". TM (Note: I hope Earlie does not sue me for this misuse of his proud name). If so, I will immediately change the name to "Max Pain Radish Forecast" but that forecast normally comes later in the month. Looking at the current QQQ chains, Call options are stacking up like PCs in the warehouse. Calls outnumber puts at QQQ 27 by 114K to 33K and at 28 113K to 52K. Meanwhile puts are building up (but not as extreme at strikes 24 and 25, roughly 63K each). The battleground is QQQ 26 with 50K each way. If we have any kind of dip below 25 early next week, I can envision max pain dropping to 26. Then what? It would take a pretty good push to pop us thru QQQ 27 or 28 with call volume that lopsided, especially if we fall to QQQ 24 first. Perhaps we just flop around between QQQ 25 and 27 with huge options building up on both sides, while VIX and VXN both plunge and the market does nothing but kill the option speculators on both sides. Given the fact that the PPT and/or other forces just would not let the damn thing crash, overhead resistance is huge, investor sentiment sucks, sideways movement to nowhere either up or down seems to be as good a call as any right now. I predict Zeev will do well if July plays out like this. Taking $2 off QLGC 6-8 times in the 35-39 range with the stock headed nowhere. His comment on this will be: "Is this a great country or what". Everyone else will be frustrated as hell. Let's see how this plays out. If we break one way or the other, I think Down is more likely (followed by a rally up to max pain, wherever it resides) rather than up first and a fall back to max pain. Radishes, like Turnips, reserve the rights to change their minds based on how options stack up and/or other market factors. M