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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff who wrote (2962)	6/29/2002 2:02:27 AM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 30712

Well if my backwards vision is working we are going to 1200 area before we have a nice 15% rally. This fits my major discomfort about last week. Max

To: Jeff who wrote (2962)	6/29/2002 3:46:17 AM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

Well, I have been trying to see what you are talking about with the retrace and perhaps I am being to much of a perfectionist. Do these two charts basically cover what you are seeing? April 97 - Dec 97 stockcharts.com[h,a]daclynay[d19970401,19971128][pf][J4907275,Y]&listNum=1 2002 stockcharts.com[h,a]daclynay[d20021001,20020628][pf][j4907150,y]&listNum=1

To: Jeff who wrote (2962)	6/29/2002 9:20:19 AM
From: exp	Respond to of 30712

Jeff, it's actually good for us here that nobody else talks about the retrace or believes in it for the following two reasons. One, it gives us here an "unfair" advantage in forecasting future market moves. Two, if others believed it they might act in a manner that would reduce or eliminate the future validity of the retrace. Basically, you have an "arbitrage" type of info with the retrace theory that gives you an advantage only if others are not aware of it and are not acting on this info.

To: Jeff who wrote (2962)	6/29/2002 9:37:45 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 30712

Jeff, basically what the re-trace is confirming is that bubbles re-trace in the form of a bell curve. That makes it logical for the price action leading into the bubble to be replicated going out of it. The one thing I noticed from your charts is that it appeared that there were 5-clean waves down from the 2098 high into the low this week. That would call for a corrective move up after the re-test is done. The corrective move should be in 3-waves (up-down-up), possibly with an extended c-wave. This might also form some kind of zig-zag after the high is in. Another thing we may need to consider is the bubble started at 975 COMP and may only need to re-trace to that level. The chart you posted has nearly 5-clear waves to that low. We'll see how close we get to that. The crash Value in April 2003 should be around 875 or so. That's not too far from 975.