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To: AllansAlias who wrote (43925)6/29/2002 10:33:24 AM
From: ajtj99  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 209892
 
Applying a historic rate of return to crash value (1990 low on the COMP with an annual rate of return of 8%) gets you to around COMP 800 today. Doubling that every 9-years, plus adding another double for bull runs would get you to 5,000 in around 15-years. That's not too bad.

We had a discussion a few days ago about middle age. It seems to be much older than it used to be since people are living so much longer. I guess you could consider 65 middle aged now, and maybe you're not you're elderly until 85 or so.

In fact, it's hard to call anyone elderly unless they have dementia, use a walker, or have alzheimers. If they have their faculties and scoot around OK, they're hard to call elderly.



To: AllansAlias who wrote (43925)6/29/2002 1:39:15 PM
From: At_The_Ask  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
Ooops. 3k was a typo. I meant two. A double from THE bottom would not be unprecedented. investorsgrapevine.org

Here is a picture of the wedge. You probably can't see it because you are looking at log scale.

marketswing.com

I give the wedge about a 60% chance of breaking up. If it doesn't the decline should be a good one. Time wise I think we are getting near the bottom in tech. The zero line is not far away at this pace.