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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James R.Gross who wrote (3731)	6/29/2002 11:58:26 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 95487

RE: "... who do you like now?" I am a long term investor. For semi-equips that means about a 3 year holding period. I like AMAT, ASML, KLAC, and NVLS. I have been "accumulating" since last spring. I have specific buy levels which have been in effect since last spring and I sell ~6 month, out of the money covered calls when prices are high. I don't see any major move up until the end of the year, at least. I see an unusually slow and unusually long up cycle for semi-equips because the long term secular growth in chip unit volumes and revenues was broken by the bursting of the dot com bubble.

To: James R.Gross who wrote (3731)	6/30/2002 2:06:38 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95487

SFAM, AMAT & LRCX CMP Discussion. First I value Carey's opinions but I hold two stocks he doesn't like. I've also thought his favorites for chip stocks were far, far too expensive and it seems they are only now getting close to where I might think they are worth nibbling... I KNOW where MXIM was looking to get much of its chip growth and those companies are going bankrupt daily now... I'd rather wait for a fat pitch where we might get a PEG of 0.5 if they value the company on earnings rather than PEG. This may not happen, but I thought there is too much risk in MXIM, LLTC, ALTR and XLNX recently to buy and since then they have come way, way down so I was right for the short term. UTEK: Perhaps because I have designed products taking advantage of some protos made possible by UTEK's solder bump process I like that company more than I should or perhaps I see the value the others don't? Anyway, that is what makes a market. SFAM: I tripled my position in it at $3.34 this year when they got a nice order and it seemed it was technically recovering. One of my few big wins this year, but not for a ton of money. I own it much like a hedge in case AMAT and LRCX don't get he CMP tool orders as those are my other two stocks in the sector. I have much more money in AMAT and LRCX with SFAM as the CMP hedge. I like others, but they are well correllated and these four do fine for me (AMAT, LRCX, UTEK and SFAM) along with Agilent and Intel. Kirk