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Technology Stocks : Leap Wireless International (LWIN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: alburk who wrote (2290)	6/29/2002 2:41:40 PM
From: pcstel	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2737

Does Leap currently have the capacity to provide "all you can eat" data? In my opinion, the answer is yes. But, only in selected markets. I surmize that when you talk about capacity, you are talking about on the Air Interface. There are a few markets that I believe LWIN would lack the capacity. Such as Phoenix, Denver, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Charlotte to provide a seperate EV-DO carrier. But, in the majority of their markets. I believe they have the capacity for a EV-DO offering. As a matter of fact, in earlier documents provided to the FCC. LWIN provided the FCC with vendor documents regarding EV-DO delivery timetables. What this means in absolute terms is unclear. As far as the existing infrastructure goes. It is all 1X capable, according to Harvey at the shareholders meeting. I believe Verizon now offers "flat rata data" on their Express Network for $99 via 1X. In Qualcomm Economics of Wireless Data White Paper. It shows the cost per Megabyte on 1X of about .059 cents per, vs only .022 per for EV-DO. So my viewpoint is that if a Monolith like Verizon can make a profit on flat rate 1X data at $99 per month. LWIN can make money on flat rate data via EV-DO at $35 per month. Is porting essentially the ability to transfer phone numbers back and forth? Say if I terminate my wireline service but wish to retain my wireline phone number for my new Leap account. Yes, and not just for residences, but business also, whose phone number is their life blood. Which of course the RBOC's understand and gouge their business users. Currently, Wireline providers already support LNP due to FCC rules. I did receive a reply from LWIN IR yesterday. It basically stated that their is no regulatory problems with Cricket being able to request a "port in" of a wireline subscribers phone number. Quoted from the reply from IR.... "However, there are technical obstacles to wireline to wireless porting such as interface and testing, etc. and agreements have to be reached as to the level of charges. The implementation of wireline number porting to our network ultimately depends on consumer demand and you can expect us to proceed based on the cost/benefit of providing such a service." My viewpoint is that porting a subscribers wireline phone number to Cricket is almost like a Contract. Especially, if they are not required to "port out" to another wireless carrier due to current regulations. "What are the worst case scenarios?" Covenant Violations, Bankruptcy Filings, All of Crickets subscribers turn off their service. Asteroids hit all of Crickets CO facilities. End of the World (I think that pretty much covers it). As far as Covenant Violations go. Most of the debt is held by the Vendors.. ERICY/NT/LU... I am sure none of those companies stock would react nicely to a Bankruptcy Filing. That being said.. There is a very nice upside potential if they meet their operating guidelines and EBITDA metrics. PCSTEL

To: alburk who wrote (2290)	6/30/2002 1:20:12 PM
From: Lance Bredvold	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2737

"...What (realistically ) could bring Leap down during Q3 or Q4?" In my necessarily humble opinion, what has brought the LWIN stock price down is fear that their competition will all declare bankruptcy and they will be left pricing against debt free competitors. My opinion has to be humble because I never would have believed the price of LWIN's stock would go below $10 or so without major problems within the company and its model. I was wrong and the above explanation is the only one which accounts for all of what I know about Leap. I doubt whether all the competitors are going to go through bankruptcy and be selling plans without fixed costs during the next two quarters, so what will cause LWIN to declare bankruptcy during that period would have to be knowledge that they would not be able to compete effectively within a couple of years and thus they too must shed their debt. But with no violation of covenants I don't think they could go into voluntary liquidation. The venders might wish to obtain assets of the company while they were still relatively valuable, but if the reason for bankruptcy were that there was no reasonable expectation for a profitable return on those assets under LWIN, then what would Lucent, Nortel and Ericy do with them? I think the implosion of the industry is what is impacting LWIN's stock price. First additional investment dollars must stop going into the industry in the expectation of a real return. That has pretty much happened as evidenced with sales levels at LU, Ericy, NT, CSCO, etc. Then consolidation of the 8 or 12 venders all vying to provide TV, telephone, ISP, and wireless communications to everybody with a checkbook will have to come about (barring reregulation of the industry). Or perhaps some form of voluntary pricing restraint, but with that many competitors, oligopolies rarely remain effective for long. best regards, Lance

To: alburk who wrote (2290)	6/30/2002 2:59:50 PM
From: Art Bechhoefer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2737

>>Based upon management's recent representations, there is nothing new (negative) to report this quarter.<< That was essentially the same information I received when I spoke with the IR people last week. But there are several reasons why a stock, once it falls below $5 or so, can have difficulty recovering. First is the fact that many institutional fund managers are not permitted to buy stocks selling at low prices. Second, and possibly more important at this particular time, is the corruption being uncovered in telecom service providers, creating fears that the whole sector is too dangerous to invest in. I also have some worry that a bankrupt competing service provider could have its debt set aside and run a relatively small company like LWIN right into the ground. However, if you look at the competition, most of them are really big guys, and I doubt that any bankruptcy court, much less the politicians who get involved in policymaking, would stand to see a bankrupt dinosauer kick get an unfair advantage. Living in a rural upstate NY area, it's hard for me to draw any conclusions about competition, since there really isn't any. We have limited Verizon Wireless service. We're supposed to have PCS, but Sprint doesn't have any base stations serving this area, and apparently they don't intend to put in any new ones either. And Cricket operates nearby in Syracuse, but that's not close enough to do anything for us. A typical Verizon Wireless rate in this area provides a fair amount of usage for $36 monthly, with peak hour use limited to about 300 hours. A typical phone user would probably exceed this amount quite easily. The only reason we don't is that the Verizon Wireless coverage in this area is spotty and not even available from the place where we live. So, on the basis of price alone, Cricket can easily compete with the larger service providers. But, simply because of size, the larger service providers have much lower advertising costs per customer or per potential customer. As to the price of LWIN shares, it is no more depressed than that of a long distance company, Touch America (TAA), which has 26,000 miles of fiber optic lines and no debt whatsoever. Yet TAA sells at $2.75, even though its book value is over $10. It makes no sense to me that either LWIN or TAA would be able to be this depressed, regardless of the fact that both have more capacity than is being currently utilized. TAA reports that its salespeople are getting the impression that customers prefer a financially sound service provider, and that fear of a loss or breakdown of service quality is one factor that influences a decision to switch to TAA. This could work in reverse for LWIN, as potential customers may feel more secure with the likes of AWE, Cingular, VoiceStream, SprintPCS or Verizon. But then, each of these competitors charges higher prices. Art

To: alburk who wrote (2290)	7/1/2002 11:18:12 AM
From: bruce_hamilton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2737

Andrew, What I worry about is the negativity in all things Telecom, especially Wireless Telecom. Any good news this quarter will be ignored. Negative news regardless of relevance will be HIGHLIGHTED. The fraud issue although under control will be mentioned with gusto, the need for addition $200M in VF loan covenant realinement will be made to look like a $200M short fall and burn rates discussed ad nauseum. The press is hunting for anything negative in the telecom sector to advance their thesis of the near demise of the industry. The pendulum has swung away from Telecom, when will it swing back? That is the question, and are you willing to put your money on the line for the time it may take for LEAP to prove their business plan? Lately, any bet on the rebound of LEAP shares has been met with huge losses. Long term, I also worry about QUALCOMMs further improvements to CDMA technology making is possible for the likes of SPRINT and VERIZON to compete in LEAPS space. I still like LEAPs business plan, but it may take longer than we think to convince Wall Street of the possibilities. Bruce