Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SOROS who wrote (942)	6/30/2002 11:30:39 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

rising commodity prices could be Mother of All Misread Signals Stephen Leeb of "Personal Finance" regards rising commodities as a signal that the US econ recovery is at the doorstep and that earnings will follow this is the first disagreement I have had with Leeb the guy is tremendous, great record but rising material costs are consistent with the Puplava twin-tier economy deflation in debt-ridden economy where tech lives, as well as many other sectors inflation in commodity-based cash economy where gold, oil, and other energy & industrial metals reside last winter I believed the falling dollar would have immediate consequences on stocks and bonds I have learned since that bonds react much more slowly stocks react in lockstep if the currency decline is too quick, too prolonged, too widespread, and accompanied by too much supporting factors, then bonds react in the second stage later we are soon to enter the second stage imho we saw transition evidence in the last 2-3 weeks several times the USTBond saw safehaven support but the USdollar DID NOT JOIN IT this told CNBC's Santelli and the rest of us mortals that the USTBond was no longer a prime beneficiary for money seeking safehaven by foreigners, but it was still for Americans this is transition evidence first, foreigners refuse to buy TBonds in troubled times second, foreigners sell TBonds to stave off further losses from the dollar effect it is coming even Bill Gross of Pimco calls it a risk dominos are about to fall one by one across the entire US economy and financial spectrum the Perfect Storm is on schedule, and nothing can stop it / jim