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Strategies & Market Trends : Guidance and Visibility -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hoffy who wrote (59049)	6/30/2002 5:08:09 PM
From: Joe Stocks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 208838

>>I personally think the market might have another 2-3 years of churning and after that I have no idea. and would never even begin to guess, because that's all it is.<<< Some have a comfort level of guessing 2-3 years out and some for much longer. Not much difference. In some cases the person making the longer term guess may have a truer prediction because they are making their assumptions off of better data and the length of time can smooth out the short term up and downs. Just a thought. Personally I find it interesting. What demographics deteriorate? Here's a site for population growth. Look at 1946 as compared to 1947. Look at 1950 thru 1957. Although this is population growth, it pretty much shows birth numbers as well. Here is a site that has a nice visual of projected population age breakdown in 2025 as compared with 1999. census.gov In generations past, age breakdowns were more pyramid shaped. With falling fertility and people living longer these breakdown are more column shaped. With the surge in births we have a pattern that more conforms to a coke bottle or a pig through a python. Where we have the deterioration come in is that starting near the end of this decade that large age group of baby-boomers becomes net consumers instead of net producers. The generation before the boomers is about 45 million. The boomers number closer to 80 million. So right now you have a generation od 80 million producing the good and services of a population of about 45 million. That ratio is better than past generations and has worked out well. The problem comes when the 80 million boomers enter retirement and the generation that follows that is entering their most productive years is only 70 million. Hmmm.... 70 million following and supporting the needs of 80 million. That's where we have the deterioration in demographics from an economic standpoint. Unlike many other facets of the future the chances of change to those numbers are slim so making some economic assumptions based on those number makes more sense that trying to predict what will happen in the next 2 to 3 years. Just my opinion. Joe