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To: morokko65 who wrote (43980)	6/30/2002 10:25:44 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

morokko, First of all, thanks for the update. I would love to see more folks here who, like you, have an interest in the market, but are also working on the edges of the financial bubble. Tell me, do you have any sense of whether mortgage debt is under pressure? Are people falling behind noticeably in these payments as well? I would be shocked to learn that they are not, but I would rather be shocked than ignorant. -g About the rush to mortgage debt. You are new here, so I will assume that you are also a new reader. Many here, myself included, believe the real bubble is the debt bubble. It has yet to unwind really. Although we might not know the specifics of the housing situation, we have watched the rush to easy mortgage debt with much interest. It is our belief, and those I am speaking for can correct me here if they wish, that the credit bubble will seek every corner of advance before it pops. Therefore, it is hardly surprising to see the lower consumer rates being directed at whatever is the current hot market. Margin debt, credit cards, corporate malinvestment, vehicles, government spending; they are all getting their turn in the barrel. Now it is housing, although I think this is the top. (Again, lest you think I am in the habit of calling tops, I have never before said we were at the top in housing.) Anyway, it is always something that the sellers of debt will find. Rates did not accomplish anything constructive imo. 11 or 12 cuts and what do we have? I subscribe to the belief that, in a bubble, hot money forgets where to go. It no longer knows what properly to do. Instead, it will be directed where the gain expedient, or as regards the credit bubble, where it is needed to keep the bubble growing. This is not how an economy recovers. Cheers and welcome to the thread.

To: morokko65 who wrote (43980)	6/30/2002 10:27:57 PM
From: lisalisalisa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

re tommybear- that is exactly what I was thinking. If we get a tommy bears rally now, he will have called every turn since early 2000 correctly so far. I would think that perhaps the plunge he forecast beginning in november/december time frame might be the result of or cause the real estate bubble to come down. This would be much more devastating than the stock market decline IMO. If we get a summer rally, I will be buying my first puts ever starting around mid October I would think. My targets would be FRE and FNM, some CC's, GE, IBM, JPM and most likely some tech trash (maybe not though).

To: morokko65 who wrote (43980)	6/30/2002 11:09:16 PM
From: martin001	Respond to of 209892

Thanks for the response. I keep a pretty close eye on the local RE market and that analogy of yours (a stock making new highs on less volume) echoes my own thoughts. It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out. Friends of mine who are actively looking to purchase a new home around here have asked me for my advice. They are worried that prices will run even higher if they dont get in now. The only advice I have given them is that if they can wait a year or two I think they might have more of a buyers market (at least less of a sellers market) And if they do buy - make sure they really love the place cause they may be there for awhile. And above all dont mortgage your life away.