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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (20624)	6/30/2002 10:13:44 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hi ACF Mike, <<Looks like low interest rates will be around for a while>> Yes, and no, but not because of the reason in the article (i.e. productivity). You cannot actually believe the Japanese are any less productive by that wide a mark as the Americans, or do you? In any case, yes, because as long as Japan is trying to export its way out of trouble, while the factories are still residing in Japan, they will flood the world with their life savings, until no more, either savings or factories, or both. Message 16037941 "... the market has already discounted a zero percent policy in the planet's largest creditor country, and thus implicitly the market has already discounted at least another 250 basis points of cuts in the largest debtor country. The market has not yet discounted the collapse of the principal embedded in the few mega shares (GE, FNM, C), the debt market and the dollar" No, because folks do not care as much for USD denominated asset as before, and thus the USD will continue to grind against the Yen, competitively. The Yen is backed by savings and the USD is backed by debt, thus the debtly-but-necessary-mutual-embrace of the two currencies and economies may have very different results in the two largest economies. Still per script, as before and presumably after, but hard to predict exactly what will happen, and therefore dangerous, especially and particularly as <<No lesser person than Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has raised that prospect>>. There are not very many good things that can happen in the midst of Axis of Evil, Vicious Circle of Currency Doom, Debtly Grip, and the Matrix of Accounting Gloom. Chugs, Jay