To: ChinuSFO who wrote (15673 ) 7/1/2002 10:08:38 AM From: goldsnow Respond to of 23908 SYRIA: Trying to work around Israel's superiority Syrian President Hafez Assad has not yet finished off the peace process, but his army is energetically planning three possible military scenarios: 1. A surprise Syrian attack on the Golan heights in order to shake up the peace process (Syria initiates). 2. A military confrontation in southern Lebanon similar to Operations "Accountability" and "Grapes of Wrath", in which the Syrian Army will intervene (Syria does not initiate, and even pressures Hizballah to avoid a confrontation, but its army will react if attacked). 3. An Israeli military attack on Syria, either directly on the Golan Heights or in southern Lebanon (Syria fears an Israeli scheme to seize back the cards in the Middle East and deploys to repel it). Since Syria's economy is in trouble, the Syrian military is now investing most of its resources in two long-range arms ballistic missiles and anti-tank missiles. Ballistic missiles proved their worth, in Syria's opinion, in the Gulf War. The Saggers' success in southern Lebanon convinced them of the importance of anti-tank missiles. The Syrians are now arming themselves with two brigades of mobile SCUD missiles (based on the Russian standard): a brigade of SCUD-B whose maximum range is 280 kms. and can reach Tel Aviv, and a brigade of SCUD-C whose range is 550 kms. and can reach targets in Israel as far south as Dimona. Each brigade has 18 launchers. Syria assembles the more accurate SCUD-C itself from parts sold by North Korea. When the armament program is completed, the Syrians will have the ability to launch 36 SCUD missiles (of both types) in one blow. They have no lack of missiles: according to foreign sources, the Syrians already have some 200 SCUD-B and 100 SCUD-C missiles. In addition, the Syrians also have short-range missiles such as the FROG and SS-21 (60-120 kms. range). These are old and inaccurate missiles, but taken together, the Syrians will very soon have a real capability of hitting all parts of the State of Israel with nearly 50 missiles at a time. The Syrians are aware of the Israel Air Force's enhanced capabilities to damage their missile arrays, and of the Americans new bunker-penetrating bombs. Therefore, their really big dollars have been recently invested in protecting their missile launchers. According to foreign sources, they have recently begun putting their SCUDs into deep and sophisticated underground hangars and bunkers, dug into the hills and mountains east and south of Damascusmfa.gov.il