To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1019 ) 7/1/2002 1:08:09 PM From: stockman_scott Respond to of 89467 Dollar Firms on Sturdy Manufacturing Data By Andrea Ricci Monday July 1, 1:05 pm Eastern Time NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar was firmer on Monday despite weak U.S. stocks as buoyant manufacturing data and technical factors lent support to the greenback. "A lot of models are indicating that the dollar is oversold in the short term and people are hesitant to add short positions, especially with the data suggesting that flows are going the wrong direction," said Paul Podolsky, currency strategist at Fleet Global Markets, referring to manufacturing figures released on Monday. The euro (EUR=) was off about a third of a percent versus the dollar at 98.88 cents while the dollar had put on 0.33 percent against the Japanese yen (JPY=), reaching 119.96 by midday in New York. The Institute for Supply Management reported its index rose to 56.2 in June from 55.7 in May, better than the 55.8 expected on average by economists. John Lonski, chief economist at Moody's Investors Service, called the data "very much an upbeat reading on U.S. economic recovery." "The steepness of June's reading suggests we ought to see sizable improvements in profitability in the second half of the year," he said. Investors have been hoping the revival of the broader economy would translate into better corporate profits in the latter half of 2002, but the emergence of a number of accounting scandals at major companies in recent weeks has put a big dent in sentiment. The Dow Jones industrial average (CBOT:^DJI - News) was down modestly on Monday but the Nasdaq Composite (NasdaqSC:^IXIC - News) was off almost two and a half percent amid worries about profits at tech firms. Euro futures traders noted consistent sales from one Chicago-based broker but dealers reported only small trades in general. Podolsky said the gains for the dollar could be short-lived. "There's always room for a technical correction to the trend, but the broader picture remains unchanged," he said. The euro had risen to within a hair of parity with the dollar on Friday, and most dealers expect the single currency to make another play at parity in the near term. Other U.S. economic data released on Monday were less encouraging than the ISM survey. Construction spending fell 0.7 percent in May. A 0.1 percent rise had been expected. INTERVENTION HANGOVER Against the yen, the dollar was supported by worries over possible further yen selling by the Bank of Japan after it intervened on Friday through both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. "Beware the BOJ," said one IMM floor dealer. "They want the (yen's move up) to be as slow as possible." Analysts have been mixed on whether the participation of the ECB and the Fed should be interpreted as tacit approval of Japan's actions, or as simply standard procedure for interventions outside Japanese trading hours. Japanese vice finance minister Toshiro Muto suggested on Monday that the country's decision to enlist the help of other central banks could be a step toward coordinated action. Senior Japanese Finance Ministry official Zembei Mizoguchi, meanwhile, warned that Japan was always in contact with overseas monetary authorities. The threat of further intervention was one factor keeping the yen under wraps overnight despite a surprisingly good Tankan report, Japan's quarterly corporate sentiment survey. Market players said they also were concerned the survey did not fully take into account the recent rise in the yen and the weakness of the domestic stock market. The survey's closely watched diffusion index for major manufacturers came in at minus 18, an improvement of 20 points from the previous March survey, the biggest gain on record.