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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: qveauriche who wrote (121180)	7/2/2002 11:31:53 AM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Qv I think that 24 in a normal enviroment would be a favorable price to pay. I dont believe this is a normal enviroment. We are in the last stage of a bear market which is often the worst drop. I think Qcom could dip below 20 if the dow corrects to 7000k where it would be in line with Naz in erasing bull market blowoff top

To: qveauriche who wrote (121180)	7/2/2002 12:23:29 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 152472

hi qveau, it is difficult for me to say what QCOM is worth. basically, i don't know what QCOM makes, so it is hard to say what multiple to pay without a good earnings number to start with. (personally, i think their real earnings are about half of what they say their pro forma is, but that is just a personal "ballpark" opinion and not an argument i would try to prove by logical debate.) i sense that some analysts are having problems as well. recently QCOM mgmt said they would "make the number", but we've seen at least a couple analysts say the numbers need to come down. so i wonder how much credibility mgmt has with the analysts. (they certainly don't have much credibility with me, but that's another story.) as you know, i calculated some possible NPV's under what i considered exceedingly bullish assumptions (even as i accepted mgmt's pro forma numbers at face value for the purpose of these calcs). the results led me to state NPV was anywhere from 11-12 bucks up to 18 or so, and i said this when QCOM was quite a bit higher (50s or so). of course, people thought i was full of it, but now, probably the high end of that range (18ish) does not seem completely out of the realm of possibility even to bulls. in spite of my extreme distrust of the mgmt, there is obviously some value in QCOM at some point. i would still be a buyer at the Lilo & Stitch (below PG-13) level or so. so all in all, my basic assessment has not changed much compared to when the stock was a lot higher. BTW, i closed out my buy-write recently at a slight loss. (partly because i expected QCOM to head lower, and partly because i am less enamored of buy-writes these days and would rather just own the stock. i have also closed out various other buy-write positions over the past couple months and QCOM was the last one to go.) i will consider reestablishing a position if the stock breaks to a significant new low. i expect at least a trading rally to emerge before long. even if QCOM eventually goes to 15 or 12, i would not be surprised to see several bounces on the order of 30-50% along the way.

To: qveauriche who wrote (121180)	7/2/2002 12:47:36 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Not really all that much new....concerns about the replacement market and 1x chipset inventories. wrhambrecht.com Slacker

To: qveauriche who wrote (121180)	7/3/2002 10:25:51 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Mucho and Shannon, do you still consider QCOM to be grossly overvalued at this point and why? Yes. For the same reasons as I considered it overvalued at this point last time we were here. That Qualcomm may be a great company on the tollgate to untethered yada yada yada... but that when all this greatness is sliced up 750 million someodd ways, well it's not as great in my mind as what else I could buy with the same $24. John