Rudolph's CEO addresses the IC metrology maze
Semiconductor Business News
(07/10/02 15:58 p.m. EST)
In the IC industry, metrology has become more and more critical, especially as chips move towards smaller geometries. The shift towards copper-interconnects, low-k, and other technologies is also creating new challenges for metrology tool makers. To get a handle on the technical and business trends, SBN talked to Paul McLaughlin, chairman and CEO of Rudolph Technologies Inc., a Flanders, N.J.-based supplier of metrology tools.
SBN: How do you see the metrology sector changing?
McLaughlin: We think there's going to be consolidation within metrology. Whenever you go through a downturn, there's a run to safety. That's something we have tried to concentrate on here, which is to equate safety with a strong infrastructure. We're going to see more of that. When you have terrific technology it will get you in the door, but if you don't have the infrastructure to support it, you'll lose business. The reason for that is safety.
People are getting less comfortable with betting on smaller companies. That will probably become more significant as the cost of each wafer goes up. The cost of the 300-mm wafer and the product on it is staggering, you cannot afford to risk it on companies that don't have the support structure. In other words, you must have 24/7 global support for applications and field service.
SBN: How has the downturn in the semiconductor industry affected chip-equipment makers like Rudolph?
McLaughlin: The downturn has not passed us by. Our products have gone from being both a capacity and a technology buy a few years ago to being only a technology buy this past year. That means our revenues have dropped. Last year they declined nearly 10%, which is much better than the industry average, but still, it did decline. We gave guidance to Wall Street that we believed fourth quarter last year was the bottom, and we up ticked the first quarter this year. We're giving guidance for the second quarter that it too will be up. So we think the worst is behind us.
SBN: What technology trends is Rudolph watching?
McLaughlin: If you look at today's Pentium [from Intel Corp.], it has on the order of 50 million transistors on it. By the end of the decade, they're projecting there will be one billion transistors on each chip. To get there, you can no longer use glass, or SiO2 as the gate oxide. Eventually a metal gate electrode will also be required. I think it's clear on the [ITRS] roadmap that customers will need to figure out a way to manufacture advanced gates.
SBN: What is the role of integrated metrology in all of this?
McLaughlin: There is a role for integrated metrology, maybe not in-situ, but integrated metrology. There are different types of metrology in this business: in-situ measures while the process is running; integrated measures inside the system tool; and stand-alone metrology measures outside the system tool.
The next generation, 300-mm processing, will have integrated, but not necessarily in-situ metrology. It's too difficult to do these things in plasmas and while the deposition process is underway. But, you want to do it immediately thereafter and have the metrology technique in the system tool itself, so you'll go with integrated metrology.
It will start slow; integrated metrology is a small market right now, but at the 300-mm node, it will take a bigger piece. Integrated metrology has multiple components; it's not just integrated reflectometry. We'll see integrated ellipsometry, scatterometry, and a number of different technologies that will be integrated going forward. It won't be the big revenue piece for years, but it'll be a significant part of the business in two or three years.
SBN: Where does Rudolph's technology fit into the semiconductor manufacturing process?
McLaughlin: Rudolph is a process control company that sells production thin-film metrology equipment, mainly for the semiconductor production arena. We offer metrology solutions for both opaque and transparent films.
SBN: What kind of products do you offer and what are you showing at Semicon West?
McLaughlin: Besides our integrated metrology tools, we will also show our strength in the copper arena. Our growing orders for MetaPULSE-II and decreasing orders for the original MetaPULSE tool indicates that the industry is moving increasingly to copper. If I look at my backlog today, I've got more backlog in MetaPULSE-II copper than I do in MetaPULSE. The specs for this new tool are compelling: you can do 50% dense line measurements, you can do ultra low-k film measurements, you can measure today's multi-layer barriers and tomorrow's thinnest metal films.
SBN: Are there emerging trends in your market?
McLaughlin: One technology I see emerging is a convergence of transparent and metal film metrologies. The new films and film stacks being fabricated will require multiple technologies to be successful. That means metal and transparent metrologies are getting closer together and you'll need both capabilities on a single tool.
Rudolph has the unique ability to provide this with our metal film capabilities. We are the only ones who can combine metal metrology with transparent film metrologies like ellipsometry, reflectometry, DUV, etc. Cluster tools will become more important, and customers will want to put down multiple, different films before they take a wafer out of the cluster tool. You will have to be able to measure all those films, which may be transparent, or opaque, or both, at the same time. Those who can measure such film stacks on a single metrology platform will have a competitive advantage, from both a cost-of-ownership and a throughput view.
SBN: Tell us about Rudolph's growth strategy.
McLaughlin: Last year, 82% of our sales came from products we didn't have two years ago. We're a technology-based company, and we believe we are setting ourselves up to be the standard metrology of choice for copper measurement. At present, more than 75% of all the IDMs that have copper processes are using Rudolph equipment.
SBN: What has been Rudolph's strategy during the downturn?
McLaughlin: During the downturn our strategy has been to work closely with those customers who spend for technical innovation and quality even during downturns. We have concentrated on the top 20 semiconductor makers. In fact, Rudolph has systems in 14 of the top 16 companies, and all of the top 10 chipmakers have picked Rudolph for opaque thin-film metrology.
A second factor that has taken hold over the past two years is our presence in the foundry segment. Historically we've been strong in Taiwan, and that has new importance with the growth of the foundry business. We' are a strong believer in the foundry business model. I believe that the total foundry market will be more important than the total memory market, probably in less than 30 months.
Granted it's less than half that size now, but it will grow quickly. The foundry model is so sound that it will take off at the 300-mm technology node. It's just so compelling that I think they're going to get customers that they have never had before. You have to concentrate on the top foundries and Rudolph has done so.
SBN: What are your observations about the foundry industry?
McLaughlin: The top three--TSMC, UMC, and Chartered-- are significant in that they have changed their business model by adding an R&D component. They used to buy technology and were essentially only a manufacturing company. When they did R&D, it was limited to process manufacturing. They used to look at improving the process, but now they're looking at technology nodes. They're leading in things like copper, 0.13-micron, and low-k dielectrics. They're at the front of the pack--right there with the global semiconductor leaders. They have put a few more percent per dollar into their R&D operating model and they've devoted that to the latest technology.
SBN: Do you see the foundry model as key to the industry's recovery?
McLaughlin: I think it will be, but it will only be one part. You have to look at the market in segments; geographic slices and product slices. In terms of product slices, we're going to see some excitement in the rising area of flash memory. I also see several other product slices in the logic area that will be strong going forward at the end of this year and into 2003. Telecomm will recover more slowly. We'll see the market come back by segments and not in lock step.
When you look at the recovery in geographic slices, you realize you have to be a player in China. Two-thirds of the capital expenditures this year in China were from just two companies: Grace and SMIC. It's important to play at both of those, and I'm happy to say we are. The global business right now mirrors the memory business: if you can't play at the top three, there is only a third of the market, or less, left. So you have to play at Micron, Samsung, and Infineon, and we do. |
