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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (12521)	7/2/2002 1:19:10 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

Morgan Stanley cuts semi capex forecasts for 2002 to -20% from -15% and for 2003 to +20% from +30%, saying they believe that the recovery is still underway but that consensus numbers suggest unrealistic growth; cuts price targets and/or estimates for AMAT, CYMI, AEIS, ACLS, DPMI, KLAC, KLIC, LRCX, LTXX, NVLS, PLAB, TER, VSEA, CMOS, EGLS, and MTSN.

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (12521)	7/2/2002 2:05:40 PM
From: techanalyst1	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57684

I don't know Lizzie. I could make an argument that the naz bottoms here and it's just a headfake slightly lower low. I could make another argument that we go to 700. Why? Take the range that just broke... about a 700 point range and subtract that from the recent lows and you get about 700. How could that happen? The stocks that have held up could go to their 52 week lows and some could break while the others that have already been down a ton could hold up. Those that are down alot don't make up nearly the market cap weight of those that have held up.... hence the index falls but it's really just those that have held up that are the culprits. Ordinarily, I'd say that we bottom out soon, but looking at what companies would have earned without options makes me really worried that stocks could fall much further. It all depends on what the market wants to make of that type of accounting. We shouldn't think that this is impossible. Dow lost 89% of it's value in the 30's and this accounting thing is the thing that could make us do the same thing.... In other words.... the economy can recover, techs can see improving fundamentals or stop getting worse, but the stocks can continue to fall just because investors are unwilling to pay what they're trading at now. It's really anyone's guess where we bottom and anyone who thinks they know for sure is just lucky or fooling themselves. TA