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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (1199)	7/2/2002 4:29:09 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

been watching the Mother of All S&P Head & Shoulders ever since early spring we now conduct a Tour de Force battle at the Neckline S&P at 950 it will take a while but I believe the neckline will fail later this autumn it will not be taken out easily, obviously we will see a titanic struggle upcoming but notice the Left Shoulder, where 2-3 months battled we will likely see the same on the Right Shoulder the target price after failure is REALLY REALLY SCAREY I believe it is around 500, a 40-50% drop on S&P why would the entire stock market fail? one asks I believe it will be because of four things: 1. dollar decline will lead to widespread abandonment of US assets, only compounded by distrust of honesty & integrity 2. price inflation will return with a vengeance, as the dollar opens the back door to rising import prices, while TBond selling raises rates to attract foreign capital 3. earnings will be a big disappointment, even with a tepid recovery, as margins are squeezed 4. the investment world and band of economists will realize that Real Estate is living on borrowed time in a bubble, threatening to bring down the US economy in the meantime, I exited gold stocks today shouldve done it while in NCbeach zone that was my plan, and I failed my plan ashamedly it cost me a few bucks I expect a dollar bounce next two weeks, with stocks rising unfortunately, the disconnect between gold and stock/dollar resulted in a decision to exit the linked dynamic was strong all spring but now last week gold disconnected from the dollar in the last four trading days, gold disconnected from stocks the result has been removing a few pressure factors working on gold e.g. miners covering hedges I expect a capitulation among gold stocks soon so does Slider, so does Pembleton (on Drilling II thread) the XAU and HUI charts are showing breakdowns clearer on XAU, but I expect HUI to follow we could have serious retracement here the July4th NoShow of terrorist attacks will prompt dollar buying which will lead to gold selling sooner or later, people will suspect that the AlQaeda War is being played on our public it is distracting attention from deeper corruption revelations perhaps isnt it suspicious why SEC Pitt so vigorously locks down bonuses for WCom, threatens quick prosecution of violators, talks tough, but nothing on indictments of Enron thieves? I smell a rat with Enron and Bush-Cheney sorry to say it, because I voted for them, liked them now I am an abject apolitical renegade running loose I expect that golds will regroup and stage an incredibly powerful rally this autumn BUT IT WILL REQUIRE EXPECTATIONS AND REALIZATIONS OF PRICE INFLATION which is the ugly consequence of the dollar decline almost nobody in the press or media is talking about it Asian mfg might keep the inflation at bay somewhat the question is how much profit margin China will sacrifice in order to complete their capture of Japan this is China's awaited revenge against their bitter Asian millenium-long enemy China has gutted much of Japan's mfg base I believe China will allow prices to rise because all of Asia must deal with the same price problem the vengeance I see with price inflation will likely be seen as gradual and unrelenting as each foreign producer talks of keeping prices down, then doesnt just like Russia with oil production talk is easy and appeases OPEC in the immediate but the reality is that greed wins prices rise / jim