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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (37482)	7/2/2002 6:49:23 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68182

Hi Tim, I have still not done anything yet. I agree with Jim's senario of a post Independence day bounce due free of a large terrorist attack subsiding. I am having problems finding any leadership though. It may be a negative tomorrow but INRG warned after the close. It should press storage tomorrow. Only BRCD has confirmed earnings targets so far. A few software companies warned after the close too: MUSE, OPWV, ITWO, KANA. I am staying with the theme of DVD growth. ESST on the hardware side and HLYW on the DVD rental side. HLYW raised guidance today and still fell. I am assuming it is the market as the has a reasonable P/E and had had good earnings growth. biz.yahoo.com I may have to re-think my opinion of the E-gaming sector. AKLM had poor forward guidance and MWY warning after the close. I like RFMD here also and Jan 2004 options seems to be firming up after last weeks lows. I expect next Q to be up as manufacturers ramp for the Christmas season. I sort of doubt whether it will be a good buying season though. So I would expect the better part of valor would to be out before January earnings. My mid-range scenario is playing out as expected so far. We had the late spring sell off. We should start to see some buying interest in July/August as traders still try to hold out hope of a 2H re-bound. I have to admit though I expect a better earnings backdrop than I have seen. There are very few leadership sectors: retail and DVD being the only 2 I see right now. In addition most of the firming revenues at companies that are actually see it are appear to be due to depleted inventories at manufacturers and market share gains as opposed to improving demand in the sectors. It makes it a pretty tough stock picking environment. You can simply identify a leader and try to pick up the laggards in the sector in hopes of the money rotating to secondary players.