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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Duke of URL© who wrote (167346)	7/2/2002 10:34:32 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Re: I have heard that intel processors in number are 86% of the market. AMD still has close to 20%, via has a couple of %, and Transmeta seems to be increasing units again, albeit from a very small base. Then there's Apple... I really doubt Intel has as much as 80% of the market, even if you limit it to X86 and count game console sales to Microsoft. I have guessed that the total high end market is 75 Billion. That's a tough one, since a huge part of "high end" computer sales consist of services and software. This would mean that the $ portion of that mark which goes to the processor might be 18 Billion We're all kind of on the same side here, even if some of us see the business going to AMD, while others see it going to Intel - from either perspective, the bigger the better. But units in this market are numbered in the hundreds of thousands, with 90%+ of those dual processor, so the total number of "high end" processors, even with a few tens of thousands of 4-way, 8-way, etc, is less than 500,000. That's all of Sun's Sparc (server) sales, all of HP's PA-Risc sales, all of Compaq's Alpha sales, all of IBM's PowerPC sales (which includes RS6000 and AS400 boxes). Annual sales. In total, it's well under half a million in silicon units. Even if Intel were able to take half that market, and had ASPs of $2,000, that works out to $1.25 Billion in gross sales per quarter - most of which would be profits, if units got that high. Now, I doubt they'd get that much for just the CPUs, but if you include the pricey chipsets that go with these systems, you might see numbers that big - or a little bigger. But to get there, you'd have to take a chunk of Sun's sales, a chunk of IBM's sales, and just about all of everybody elses. And it still wouldn't do that much for Intel (but it sure would help). For AMD, on the other hand, it would represent $12 per share (annually) in additional revenue with no increase in costs.