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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: kech who wrote (121251)7/3/2002 9:08:22 AM
From: marginmike  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
 
but rates arnt going down, so wheres the expansion or stock price growth.



To: kech who wrote (121251)7/3/2002 9:28:20 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Respond to of 152472
 
imo setting stock multiples based on the fed funds rate is a recipe for disaster. first of all you need to consider that the funds rate is currently negative in real terms (due to manipulation by the lunatic Greenspan), and is also not a rate available to the public. next you need to consider that since Greenspan can literally set the funds rate, you are saying that he literally decides what stocks are worth. this is a huge stretch. Greenspan cannot even set the short money rate, given that the Libor is now way off the funds rate compared to past history, which is an indication that investors recognize he is full of crap.

a further indication that intelligence is returning to the market is the thrashing of the dollar. the market is dissing greenspan here big time.

better to look at corporate bonds imo. compared to a portfolio of 7-8% bonds, a PE of 12 to 14 would be reasonable. so the market is probably overpriced by about 70% imo. even more for certain tech stocks.



To: kech who wrote (121251)7/3/2002 10:07:57 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 152472
 
With Fed Funds at 1.75% you can get some pretty high expected multiples. 1/.0175 = 57 multiple

i should also mention that not even Greenspan uses the fed funds rate to value stocks. the so-called Fed model uses the 10-yr Treasury and compares this to the earnings yield on the SPX. with the SPX earnings yield at around 2.5% while the 10yr bond is at 4.8%, that implies the market is almost 50% overpriced.