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To: kodiak_bull who wrote (14835)7/3/2002 11:04:57 AM
From: stockman_scott  Respond to of 23153
 
Bankruptcies Continue Surge Even as Economy Improves

By Jeff St.Onge

Washington, July 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. corporate bankruptcies are headed for a second straight record year after filings by Adelphia Communications Corp., Global Crossing Ltd. and Kmart Corp.

Last year, 255 publicly traded companies, led by Enron Corp., put $260 billion of assets under court protection, almost triple the record that stood for a decade. So far this year, 113 companies with $149 billion in assets have filed, according to BankruptcyData.com. WorldCom Inc., which listed $103.8 billion in assets in a May Securities and Exchange Commission filing, may seek Chapter 11 protection after hiding costs to boost profits.

The recovering economy hasn't stemmed a bankruptcy trend fueled by corporate scandals and the collapse of last decade's speculative bubble. Reckless optimism created excess capacity in industries such as telecommunications, bankers and lawyers say.

``The worst isn't over by any means,'' said Ken Buckfire, a restructuring specialist with investment banking firm Miller, Buckfire Lewis & Co. ``I don't see any decrease in the volume of bankruptcies for the next year-and-a-half to two years.''

Enron, with $63.4 billion in assets, filed the largest Chapter 11 case in December. It would be dwarfed if WorldCom declares bankruptcy. The long-distance telephone company said it's trying to work out a plan with banks to avoid Chapter 11.

Trend Continues

``I've never seen the magnitude and the concentration of financial failures in such a short period of time,'' said corporate lawyer David Heiman of Jones, Day, Reavis & Pogue, who has handled some of the biggest Chapter 11 restructurings. ``There are some huge companies where the value has simply evaporated.''

At the same time, the U.S. economy is recovering. Consumer spending, home sales and factory production are rising. Manufacturing expanded in June at the fastest pace in almost 2 1/2 years, according to an industry survey that also shows factories may be cutting fewer jobs.

``The economy may be headed for a comeback, but corporate bankruptcy filings are a lagging economic indicator,'' said Carter Pate, head of financial advisory services at PricewaterhouseCoopers.

``Enron's collapse in December, other high-profile bankruptcies like Kmart and accounting issues have added to the uncertainty that began with the acceleration of the recession on Sept. 11,'' Pate said.

Adelphia Filing

Last week, cable television company Adelphia Communications Corp. filed for Chapter 11. Days earlier, XO Communications Inc., with $8.5 billion in debt, and the largest U.S. farm cooperative, Farmland Industries Inc., filed for bankruptcy.

Five of the eight largest Chapter 11 cases in history have been filed since December. Besides Enron, they are telecommunications company Global Crossing, with $25.5 billion in assets; Adelphia, with $24.4 billion; retailer Kmart, with $17 billion; and NTL Inc., the U.K.'s biggest cable-TV operator, with $16.8 billion.

``There's an endless supply of situations and circumstances that give rise to financial failure,'' said Marc Abrams, a bankruptcy lawyer with New York's Willkie, Farr & Gallagher.

Kaiser Aluminum Corp., the second biggest U.S. aluminum company, was forced into bankruptcy in February by thousands of asbestos lawsuits. A month later, National Steel Corp. became one of 23 steelmakers going bankrupt in the past five years due to overseas competition.

Excess Capacity

Telecommunications companies like Global Crossing and WorldCom have suffered due to a glut of capacity amid waning demand for telephone and Internet services.

Airlines, energy companies, retailers, metals companies and telecommunications providers are prime candidates for bankruptcy filings later this year, company advisers say.

Chapter 11 bankruptcy keeps the creditors of cash-strapped companies at bay while they restructure finances and negotiate a recovery plan, said Marcia Goldstein, a bankruptcy lawyer at Weil, Gotshal & Manges.

Because lenders are repaid ahead of other creditors, ``Chapter 11 can also enhance a company's ability to get financing,'' she said. In bankruptcy court, a company can escape unfavorable contracts and expensive leases.

With more and larger businesses opting for bankruptcy, the stigma is also easier to overcome, Goldstein said.

While the debtor keeps control of the business and its assets in Chapter 11, the court-supervised recovery process can take years to complete and sometimes leads to liquidation.

Bankruptcy Barometer

A good gauge of how long the increase in corporate bankruptcy filings will last is the default rate on junk bonds, said Edward Altman, professor of finance at New York University's Stern School of Business. About three-fourths of the companies that default on bond debt wind up in bankruptcy, Altman said.

Based on the $40 billion of junk bonds that have defaulted this year, Altman predicts about a 12 percent default rate in 2002. That's compared with last year's record 9.8 percent rate, representing about $64 billion of debt.

Pate of PricewaterhouseCoopers said, regardless of the economic climate, more than 200 public companies will seek Chapter 11 protection from creditors this year.

``You have to separate the better economy from the number of company bankruptcies,'' said Peter Fitzsimmons of the consulting firm Alix Partners of Southfield, Michigan. ``A lot of debt still needs to be restructured.''



To: kodiak_bull who wrote (14835)7/3/2002 11:11:52 AM
From: Gottfried  Respond to of 23153
 
kb, Jerry has an urgent message for Datek users Message 17689874



To: kodiak_bull who wrote (14835)7/3/2002 11:13:43 AM
From: gravity rules  Respond to of 23153
 
Here's some targets I placed:
ZRAN 18.90 GNSS 6.40 BRCM 14.30 BRCD 14.10 MRVL 16.40 PMCS 7.30 AMGN 33.90 SWTX 4.20 VTSS 2.28 CTXS 5.20 IRF 24.30 GENZ 16.20 GTW 3.80 ESST 15.60. Will NOT see 20 points from GM...closed today for +18.10. My only shorts here are MSFT JPM BAC PRU. May adjust a few up this afternoon.
edit added JNPR 5.60.



To: kodiak_bull who wrote (14835)7/3/2002 11:40:32 AM
From: Warpfactor  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23153
 
KB "Is it safe to start picking up positions here"

I am probably 20% loaded with tech right now - and was hoping to go as high as 50%.

Currently sitting on RFMD, CYMI, KLAC, QLGC in size. Dumped JNPR yesterday, but may re-enter. All 4 of the above are up as we speak.

VIX over 35, TRIN making a run at a triple duece. Should the markets selloff into close, I would postulate that an aggressive investor may pick up some shares. Should the terrorism fail to materialize tomorrow, a short covering relief rally should ensue.