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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (14850)	7/3/2002 2:35:07 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Arch: Your list of OAKT VTSS MCTR STEL NVDA MVIS: Which of these companies has significant insider buying? Just glancing at the charts (daily and weekly), I would be most hopeful on OAKT VTSS and STEL. The others' charts would appear to have more work to do on the downside, but that's just one guy's guess. Going a little macro here, IBD today has a graph of the 1929 Crash and the 2000 Naz Bubble Top and, as these graphs always are, it's a little eerie. Using the 89% selloff figure and a variety of starting points, I tried to get a sense of where the Naz might actually bottom. Don't try this at home kids and always wear safety goggles when using a Bunsen Burner. My assumptions are we are going to hit a near term low very soon here, rally a bit then fade in August. Except for energy names and special situations (collapsed stocks), I won't want to hold anything after August 15, and feel that September or October will yield us up one of these lows, in descending order: 1225: this represents an 89% retrace back to the 1995 level of roughly 750. Why? Why not? 1123: I forget where this number came from, but it's on my sheets. It's a retrace to somewhere. 1092: This is 89% retrace from the 2000 high to the 1992 low of 603. 1035: This is 100% retrace to the 1995 level. 603: 100% retrace to 1992 levels, a mega Fibo retrace. Just hacking around today, as you can see. Kb

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (14850)	7/3/2002 3:39:42 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 23153

There are plenty of companies that will make it through the downturn which, in hindsight, will appear very attractive at today's prices. If you are willing to wait it out, a company like VTSS should do fine for those buying today but it may not look that way in a month or 2 if the bear continues. The problem with holding a company like VTSS is that they provide products into the most depressed sector out there, ie the telecom/datacom segment. What will help VTSS is their high rate of R+D, but this also puts pressure on the company to generate revenues sooner, rather than later.