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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nspolar who wrote (15130)	7/3/2002 7:44:41 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36161

["So I went long a couple of semis today"] ...the epitome of a sentiment driven, make that "hyper-driven" cyclical sector. The SOX will make us a ton of money... my point on VTSS was NOT that it's a POS at $2 down from $100.... but, more of it being a posterchild on what sentiment extremes can do. I WILL probably own VTSS and I will surely own a lot of Semi's in due time... its a great trading sector and its a classic cyclical mo-mo money haven. But, only those with 30-40-50% Cash are going to be able to waltz in and make a portfolio weighted "HIGH REWARD - LOW RISK" bet in the Semi's.... not the fund manager who's capitulated all the way down on VTSS... and who only has a 3,4 % cash position. CASH gives us the "trigger" to pull on OPPORTUNITY. And the present geopolitical and economic environment in this market has so many potential rogue wave event catalysts that can bring such maddening swings... that the only ones who will be able to LEVERAGE that "when, not if" Opportunity - are those who are disciplined and patiently sitting on a hoarde of cash. You won't get any criticism from me for beginning to average into some semi's here... I just prefer to wait...and I think we're due for another "Black October" fwiw... We should break DOW 8000 by then imo... maybe be sitting around DOW 7800 and get an "event driven" market meltdown sub DOW 7,000 and THAT will be the time and place to move masses of CASH to the longside... and the SOX and Tech will be getting a large share of my money... when, not if... good luck