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To: Les H who wrote (2211)	7/4/2002 3:10:31 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29594

Comparing the yield on 10-year treasury notes to the yield on the S&P 500 index over time S&P 500 S&P 500 S&P 500 S&P 500 S&P 500 S&P 500 10y treas p/e earnings dividend total yield yield eom date yield ratio yield yield yield ratio variance SPX ------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 2002.06 4.93 51.6 1.9 1.7 3.6 1.37 -1.3 990 2002.03 5.28 57.4 1.8 1.6 3.4 1.55 -1.9 1147 2001.12 5.09 50.9 2.0 1.7 3.7 1.38 -1.4 1148 2001.09 4.73 33.0 3.0 1.6 4.6 1.03 -0.1 1041 2001.06 5.28 28.1 3.6 1.6 5.2 1.02 -0.1 1224 2001.03 4.89 23.5 4.3 1.6 5.9 0.83 -1.0 1160 2000.12 5.24 25.8 3.9 1.5 5.4 0.97 -0.2 1320 2000.09 5.80 29.3 3.4 1.3 4.7 1.23 -1.1 1437 2000.06 6.10 29.8 3.4 1.2 4.6 1.33 -1.5 1455 2000.03 6.26 32.1 3.1 1.2 4.3 1.48 -2.0 1499 1999.12 6.28 34.1 2.9 1.3 4.2 1.50 -2.1 1469 1999.09 5.92 31.3 3.2 1.3 4.5 1.32 -1.4 1363 1999.06 5.90 35.4 2.8 1.2 4.0 1.48 -1.9 1373 1999.03 5.23 32.8 3.0 1.3 4.3 1.22 -0.9 1286 1998.12 4.65 31.5 3.2 1.3 4.5 1.03 -0.2 1229 1998.09 4.81 24.7 4.0 1.6 5.6 0.86 +0.8 1017 1998.06 5.50 27.4 3.6 1.4 5.0 1.10 -0.5 1134 1998.03 5.65 31.7 3.2 1.5 4.7 1.20 -1.0 1102 1997.12 5.81 24.1 4.1 1.6 5.7 1.02 -0.1 970 1997.09 6.21 26.7 3.7 1.7 5.4 1.15 -0.8 947 1997.06 6.49 24.7 4.0 1.8 5.8 1.12 -0.7 885 1997.03 6.69 20.9 4.8 2.0 6.8 0.98 +0.1 757 1996.12 6.30 20.6 4.9 2.0 6.9 0.91 +0.6 741 1996.09 6.83 19.8 5.1 2.1 7.2 0.95 +0.4 687 1996.06 6.91 19.7 5.1 2.2 7.3 0.91 +0.4 671 1996.03 6.27 18.9 5.3 2.2 7.5 0.84 +1.2 646 1995.12 5.71 17.6 5.7 2.3 8.0 0.71 +2.3 616 1995.09 6.20 16.7 6.0 2.4 8.4 0.74 +2.2 584 1995.06 6.17 16.0 6.3 2.5 8.8 0.70 +2.6 545 1995.03 7.20 15.6 6.4 2.7 9.1 0.79 +1.9 501 1994.12 7.81 16.7 6.0 2.9 8.9 0.88 +1.1 459 1994.09 7.46 18.3 5.5 2.8 8.3 0.90 +0.8 463 1994.06 7.10 19.4 5.2 2.9 9.1 0.78 +2.0 444 1994.03 6.48 16.7 6.0 2.9 8.9 0.73 +2.4 446 1993.12 5.77 22.7 4.4 2.7 7.1 0.81 +1.3 466 1993.09 5.36 23.8 4.2 2.7 6.9 0.78 +1.5 459 1993.06 5.96 23.8 4.2 2.8 7.0 0.85 +1.0 451 1993.03 5.98 24.1 4.1 2.8 6.9 0.87 +0.9 452 1992.12 6.77 24.0 4.2 2.9 7.1 0.95 +0.3 436 1992.09 6.42 24.1 4.1 3.0 7.1 0.90 +0.7 418 1992.06 7.26 25.4 3.9 3.1 7.0 1.04 -0.3 408 1992.03 7.54 25.3 4.0 3.0 7.0 1.08 -0.5 404 1991.12 7.09 23.5 4.3 2.9 7.2 0.98 +0.1 417 1991.09 7.65 19.9 5.0 3.2 8.2 0.93 +0.5 388 1991.06 8.28 17.5 5.7 3.3 9.0 0.92 +0.7 371 1991.03 8.11 17.4 5.7 3.2 8.9 0.91 +0.8 375 1990.12 8.08 15.0 6.7 3.7 10.4 0.78 +2.3 330 1990.09 8.89 14.3 7.0 4.0 11.0 0.81 +2.1 306 1990.06 8.48 16.4 6.1 3.4 9.5 0.89 +1.0 358 1990.03 8.59 14.7 6.8 3.5 10.3 0.83 +1.7 340 1989.12 7.84 14.8 6.8 3.3 10.1 0.78 +2.3 353 1989.09 8.19 13.6 7.4 3.2 10.6 0.77 +2.4 349 1989.06 8.28 15.0 6.7 3.4 10.1 0.82 +1.8 318 1989.03 9.36 12.1 8.3 3.7 12.0 0.78 +2.6 295 1988.12 9.11 12.1 8.3 3.7 12.0 0.76 +2.9 278 1988.09 8.98 12.4 8.1 3.7 11.8 0.76 +2.8 272 1988.06 8.92 14.5 6.9 3.6 10.5 0.85 +1.6 274 1988.03 8.37 15.0 6.7 3.6 10.3 0.81 +1.9 259 1987.12 8.99 15.4 6.5 3.7 10.2 0.88 +1.2 247 1987.09 9.42 21.7 4.6 2.8 7.4 0.79 -2.0 322 1987.06 8.40 19.8 5.1 2.9 8.0 0.95 -0.4 304 1987.03 7.25 19.8 5.1 3.0 8.1 0.90 +0.8 292 1986.12 7.11 16.3 6.1 4.1 10.2 0.70 +3.1 242 1986.09 7.45 16.1 6.2 4.2 10.4 0.72 +2.9 231 1986.06 7.80 17.4 5.7 3.9 9.6 0.81 +1.8 251 1986.03 7.78 16.6 6.0 4.0 10.0 0.78 +2.2 239 1985.12 9.26 14.0 7.1 4.3 11.4 0.81 +2.1 211 1985.09 10.37 11.7 8.5 4.9 13.4 0.77 +3.0 182 1985.06 10.16 11.7 8.5 4.7 13.2 0.77 +3.0 192 1985.03 11.86 10.8 9.3 4.8 14.1 0.84 +2.2 181 1984.12 11.50 10.4 9.6 5.1 14.7 0.78 +3.2 167 1984.09 12.52 10.5 9.5 5.0 14.5 0.86 +2.0 166 1984.06 13.56 10.1 9.9 5.3 15.2 0.89 +1.6 153 1984.03 12.32 11.4 8.8 4.9 13.7 0.90 +1.4 159 1983.12 11.83 13.8 7.2 4.9 12.1 0.98 +0.3 165 1983.09 11.65 13.4 7.5 4.8 12.3 0.95 +0.6 166 1983.06 10.85 13.8 7.2 4.7 11.9 0.91 +1.0 168 1983.03 10.51 12.5 8.0 5.1 13.1 0.80 +2.6 153 1982.12 10.54 10.6 9.4 5.3 14.7 0.72 +4.2 141 1982.09 12.34 8.7 11.5 6.2 17.7 0.70 +5.4 120 1982.06 14.30 7.6 13.2 6.7 19.9 0.72 +5.6 110 1982.03 13.86 7.5 13.3 6.6 19.9 0.70 +6.0 112 1981.12 13.72 8.1 12.3 6.1 18.4 0.75 +4.7 123 1981.09 15.32 8.0 12.5 6.3 18.8 0.81 +3.5 116 1981.06 13.47 9.6 10.4 5.5 15.9 0.85 +2.4 131 1981.03 13.12 9.4 10.6 5.2 15.8 0.83 +2.7 136 1980.12 12.84 9.4 10.6 5.3 15.9 0.81 +3.1 136 1980.09 11.51 8.5 11.8 5.4 17.2 0.67 +5.7 125 1980.06 9.78 7.6 13.2 5.8 19.0 0.51 +9.2 114 1980.03 12.75 7.0 14.3 4.4 18.7 0.68 +4.9 102