Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (15144)	7/4/2002 1:10:40 AM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

George, FWIW up here and over here we do our own thinking. We don't trust anyone from the south. Too much dishonesty going on down there. Turnips in a bunch ... well you know how the adage goes. And what we're thinking at the moment is that this rebound may surprise to the upside. This is the latest direct from the vicinity of North Pole, where all the elves are honest, hard working little buggers. If we got a bitch we don't lie, cheat, rape, pillage or plunder. We settle it the old fashion way, with pickaxes. Powder is too expensive. Happy fourth!

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (15144)	7/4/2002 11:12:55 AM
From: Davy Crockett	Respond to of 36161

Cool... <eom>

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (15144)	7/5/2002 12:42:10 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

George C re: ["I don't know if you have have been following Zeev lately but he has been extremely acccurate in his NAZ calls. Predicted the massacre to 1400 NAZ 2 months ago. Now calling for a rise to 1525-1550 by July 24, before the final wave down this fall. I am playing the long side here, but have just a modest position"] George, obviously the volatility in Tech allows the "potential" for profitable in & out trading...but, imho - it's a low/medium reward - high risk game. NAZ 1400's to a "rise" to 1525/1550 is LESS than a 10% upside !?!?!? ...that isn't a High Reward/Low Risk opportunity imho. That's nothing more than trying to catch yet another falling knife and trading yet another potential "Dead Cat Bounce" (you have to be right - twice) and in reality... given the NAZ performance over 2 years now... I can't imagine that more than 5% of active Tech Traders have been successfull - ie: profitable... with that strategy. I've decided that "my style" will be to patiently wait for deeply oversold cyclical & contrarian opportunities...that are CHEAP on historic valuation metrics and where SENTIMENT has reached openly acknowledged CAPITULATION levels... and most importantly - where a HIGH REWARD/LOW RISK environment truly exists... and we are not at those levels in Energy, certainly not at those levels in Technology quite yet & I don't think we've seen a real sentiment capitulation in Tech yet either and we won't bottom untill we do...and most obviously; given present PE's in the S&P and DOW - without even discounting earnings for the present level of aggressive accounting (which one MUST do imho) - we aren't CHEAP, or at SENTIMENT CAPITULATION levels there either... So, I will wait patiently in a CASH overweighted and purely defensive position untill we are. It may come this October, or sadly; it may come off a Geopolitical Event, or domestic terrorist act... but, come it will... With so many potential negative "ROGUE WAVE" catalysts out there...I think the "game" is to very patiently wait untill we reach historically supported CHEAP valuation levels; or on a "trading" basis - to wait for an EVENT driven selloff - ala Sept 11th, or when yet another Earnings Fraud situation surfaces that leads to a massive selloff... and I don't think we've seen the last Global Crossing, Enron, or WCOM... in fact the new SEC Regulations to where CEO's will have to sign off & certify their Financials... will surely lead to some more... Cash, patience and waiting for ONLY - High Reward/Low Risk opportunities that are endorsed by historic valuation metrics and accompanying sector sentiment capitulation... that is what it will take for me to play...