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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SOROS who wrote (1417)	7/4/2002 3:15:46 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

when HUI is in (90-110) range, time to plan re-entry it is now 122.8, coming down from a doubletop failure support is at 100, then 90 with the mounting evidence of deflation, increasing activity of Central Bank intervention, lack of import price inflation to date, and lost footing for golds in recent days, it just dont pay to ride it out right now I wait for most of the above to show renewed signals - some quieting of bankruptcy liquidations - some success by CB's in stemming the blood loss - some evidence of import price rises - some stablizing of golds at lower level it will come maybe not all at the same time the paradoxical motive for golds I see is bankruptcies and fraud-related wipeouts the resulting fear leads some into golds but the consequent deflation forestalls inflation's arrival we must wait for the time when deflationary forces are external, not internal to the USA bankrupt liquidations are the internal China and Asia are the external the Fed will soon be forced to up the monetary ante and print dollars like there is no tomorrow fear have entered the hallowed inept chambers of the Fed I expect that sloshing liquidity to be directed toward commodities much more so in the future but each new liquidation might hurt golds temporarily I will be ready, unless the summer sun or a skirt distracts me / jim

To: SOROS who wrote (1417)	7/4/2002 1:28:45 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

article: Cheap Gold, argues gold is still very cheap mainstream is appealing to keeping the faith in stocks (but doesnt address XAU and HUI chart breakdowns) by Ed Bugos gold-eagle.com an excerpt: We are of the opinion that gold's weakness in recent days is related to expectations the bulls will be able to lift US share averages. The averages were largely flat last week, but the broader markets were up a little bit compared with the prior week. A bounce in stocks would I believe offer support for the dollar. Another factor driving gold lower recently has been renewed weakness in the South African Rand and the Australian dollar, which could explain why the weakest of the gold stocks happen to be the hedgers with exposure to hedges in those currencies, such as Newmont, Placer Dome, Anglogold, and Barrick. It is those stocks that have taken out their June lows. The unhedged gold stocks, as measured by the Amex Gold Bugs index, "technically" fared better, which I think is bullish for our near term outlook - that the recently weak Aussie and Rand are keeping the price of gold from confirming a primary bull market ($339) even as the US dollar just signaled a primary bear. The HUI was up on Monday. / jim