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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (15150)	7/4/2002 12:45:38 PM
From: nspolar	Respond to of 36161

Exactly George. And everyone seems to have a short rally of just a few weeks and a big leg down this fall. Looks pretty easy doesn't it. I'm thinking the odds are just as good or greater that this rally will go on longer than a few weeks, and the big leg down will come later as opposed to right on schedule or sooner. Most recent cycle predictions I've followed have been good, but if anything a little early. The process appears to be drawing out a little longer than anticipated, perhaps. IMO just something to put into the bag of possibilities. It is pretty easy to modify strategies to fit the purpose, if one is flexible up front.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (15150)	7/4/2002 2:39:05 PM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

[The XAU probably does not have much more to go on the downside..] George, this correction has been plotting pretty good and on track. If you are a waver XAU hits 65 or lower, high probability case. If you like to draw lines on charts, the apex of this declining wedge is way down around 57. If you like decisionpoint type stuff, the momentum oscillators are steep down, so steep another 5 point minimum XAU drop is very high probability. Charts, momentum oscillators also suggest POG will penetrate the 310 area soon, and drop back down to the 300 level. The support in the 290 to 300 area should be high. On the way up 290/300 gold meant 60/70 XAU. Conclusion from charts - XAU 65 or lower very high probability. My gut says heed the charts. Those that did the best in PM's over the last 1 yr plus were probably those who exercised patience, on average. Some good traders on this board take advantage of the up/down noise as well. So what is the best course of action - be patient and be a good trader both? I'll go for that. And this is another reason I'm over doinking around in semis. Figure I need a little improvement in trading skills, and you don't get it by watching.