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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: semiconeng who wrote (84168)	7/4/2002 12:44:31 PM
From: hmaly	Respond to of 275872

semiconeng Re... don't completely agree. Process Engineering is a "personal (personnel?) thing" only to a certain extent. I did mean personnel. I thought there was only one n. The success or failure of Process Improvement, IS partially dependent on the Process that you have to work with.< That I would agree with completely. However, Yousef seems to feel that TSMC or UMC can't adapt their processes. That I don't agree with. These guys aren't stupid. Both UMC and TSMC have signed joint agreements with AMD, IBM, Micron,Infineon, etc. to help get the expertise, they need to overcome Intels process lead. Because both TSMC and UMC combined have close to as many fabs as Intel and are growing at a faster rate, they will likely surpass Intel in experience in process, and in buying power. I think most people here agree that Intels process is superior to AMD's. However the P4's design is suspect. What happens when AMD or VIA or Transmeta can just concentrate on design, hire a foundary, and have a superior chip. Intel has always relied upon superior process and design. Now Intel seems to be down to process. What happens if Intel loses its process lead? Close...... Maybe. Equal...... Doubtful. Better...... I don't see how. And it isn't going to be easy, there's allot of "variables" to overcome...... I think that was Yousef's point. << Perhaps I was being trite when I said "a couple", as it might take many. However, it only takes several geniuses to guide the underlings, such as Dirk Meyer at AMD, to forge ahead with new processes. I believe intelligence will drive the processes, not machines. If Intel hits a snag, such as AMD has hit, who is to say the engineers who drove Intels processes, won't go to another place where they are appreciated, and don't have to worry about a falling dollar, layoffs, etc. Lets not forget that the rising dollar, and big bucks, lured some of the worlds best to work here. A falling dollar and layoffs, could have the opposite effect. And we haven't even explored the wild card, China, and what their intentions are in the semi area. A big national program, with their talent, and cheap resources, could overwhelm Intel. In short, I don't think Yousef is giving the Asians enough credit. If this really is the Pacific century, we could easily be overwhelmed. Our lax attitudes, and poor high schools will come home to roost. The brain drain to AMerica fueled our innovations and our boom. A reverse brain drain could expose our soft underbelly.